Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In

Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In

Compass Report, Early February 2023

December is typically the month that sees the year’s lowest level of deal-making activity – i.e. listings accepting offers (going into contract) – which leads to January usually posting the lowest monthly number of closed sales. (Sales typically close 3 to 6 weeks after going into contract.) In the 11-county, greater Bay Area, accepted-offer activity in December 2022 and closed sales volume in January 2023 generally hit their lowest monthly points in 15 years. 

Typically, after the long holiday slowdown, the market just begins to wake up in mid-January before accelerating into spring. That being said, inflation has dropped substantially since June and interest rates since November, home prices are well down from last spring, stock markets are up 8% (S&P) to 15% (Nasdaq) YTD as of 2/3/23 (albeit with continuing volatility), and despite escalating layoffs in high tech, early indications in 2023 point to rebounding buyer demand. Open house traffic has jumped, more buyers are requesting listing disclosure packages, and there have been increasing reports of multiple offers and (often unexpected) overbidding of asking price. Based on this preliminary data (much of it still anecdotal*), it appears that buyer demand severely repressed by economic conditions in the 2nd half of 2022 has begun to bounce back. 

A similar rebound began in mid-late summer 2022 for similar reasons – a significant drop in mortgage rates and a large rise in stock markets – which then quickly faded when positive economic developments went into reverse. Market activity then slowed further through the rest of 2022. There are currently considerable hopes for a more lasting economic recovery in 2023.

During the long high-tech and pandemic housing boom – which peaked in April/May 2022 – as each year began, the classic dynamic was for buyers to jump back into the market much more quickly than sellers, creating an immediate imbalance between supply and demand. Too few new listings compared to the quantity of motivated buyers sparked often ferocious bidding wars, leading to considerable home price gains virtually every spring. It is too early to conclude, after the general price declines and steep drops in market activity seen in the 2nd half of 2022, that a sustained recovery in market conditions is now underway, and if it is, how quickly it will develop and its impact on prices in 2023. Many economic conditions remain challenging – with critical indicators still much weaker on a year-over-year basis – and forecasts by economists and analysts vary widely. Hopefully, economic conditions will continue to improve, providing the foundation for the recovery in real estate. In the meantime, preliminary indicators are surprisingly positive, and the CEO of Compass recently stated his belief that Q4 2022 saw the bottom of the market.

The “spring market,”  which can begin as early as February in the Bay Area, is typically the biggest selling season of the year, especially for luxury homes, and more data regarding new listings coming on market, listings going into contract, sales volumes, speed of sale, overbidding and sales prices will soon become available.* * Most “hard” data in real estate is based on closed, which generally reflects deal-making activity in the previous month, when offers were negotiated.  January sales mostly reflect the December 2022 market when new listing activity and buyer demand were at their lowest ebb in years. February and March listing and sales data will begin to better reflect early 2023 conditions.

SANTA CLARA COUNTY REPORT

SAN MATEO COUNTY REPORT

TRI VALLEY & SOUTH ALAMEDA COUNTY

SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY REPORT

https://www.compass.com/agents/ming-wei-chien/

聊聊學區房

有了孩子之後,更能體會有孩子的客戶們想幫孩子找個學區房的心情。

大家希望孩子在最好的環境成長,但是這個「最好的環境」在每一個家長中都是有差異的。我曾經有孩子讀Lynbrook High School的媽媽告訴我:「早知道我就不讓孩子念這裡,孩子太累了。」也有一位家長因為孩子先暫住爺爺奶奶家,小學區分數只有3分,這位媽媽說:「孩子念得很開心。」

每個家長追求的學區品質、氣質、教育訴求不一,如果不是親自陪著孩子體會一次孩子的成長跟就讀過程,誰也不知道結果會是如何。而適合你們家的學校不一定適合他們家,我們只能幫孩子從大方向來看看,利用網路工具、家長評價等來幫助了解學區。

如果只看Redfin/ Zillow的學區總分是不夠的,以下的文章能幫助你了解學校分數後的指標跟意義。至於怎麼找學區房,我們能一起討論預算內的最佳選擇,由我幫你設定郵件,定期發送房源。

學區劃分

在美國的教育系統裡,學區跟隨著地址劃分,細微至每一個街廓。

幾個特殊的概念

第一、同一條街雙號邊、單號邊可能就是不同的學區,如果房子就在邊界,請打電話到學區辦公室確認。

第二、房子就在學校旁,讀得也不一定就是那一所學校,學區不是用距離遠近劃分。

第三、學區的畫分跟行政區不一樣,房子門牌是Sunnyvale,Santa Clara也有去上Cupertino School Dictrict的。

所以如果有特別想讀某一所學校、某一個學區一定要用地址在學區網站上查詢,新建房的學校則一定要跟建商、學區辦公室反覆確認。

第四、學區可能會改變,但是機率極小。

https://www.greatschools.org/school-district-boundaries-map/ 輸入地址即可找到所屬學區

學區分數要看細項評分

大家喜歡看GreatSchool.Org參考學區分數,甚至Redfin刷房的時候,下面顯示的學區就能直接連結到GreatSchool.Org。這家學校8分、那家學校也8分,但是要注意,這8分是一項綜合指標的平均,其中包括考試成績 Test Scores 考英文、數學 (註1 )跟科學(註2 )、學生進步程度Academic Progress、出勤率等,2018年之後又加上最重要的指標Equity,要 特別提醒,就算這個學校考試成績很好,也是要注意學校有沒有關注到孩子間的差異(低收入戶、Disabilities孩子、不同種族的孩子進步程度等等)學校是否有沒有對有需要的孩子「因材施教」。此外,師生比例、老師有沒有教學三年以上經驗、學校放假日、家長評價等,都能在GreatSchool.Org看到。

高中的評分細項跟國小國中不同

如果是高中評分,還有其他多項指標

College Readiness:升大學的準備,包括畢業率、學生成績高於C的比例,11 年級或 12 年級學生的 SAT 大學準備率

College Success:讀大學課程的畢業生比例

Advanced Courses:多少學生參加大學預修 (AP) 課程(註3)的學生與州平均水平相比的百分比。

Courses & Programs:(AP) 課程教學、學習科目

U.S. News 每年都有全美公立高中和私立高中(Best High Schools Rankings)排名,也能幫助你更了解學校https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools在全美、全加州、自己學區的排名情況

許多客戶在買房的時候,多數會以分數成績當作參考,除了GreatSchool.OrgU.S. News 排名網站參考,若能進一步認識該學區家長、跟周邊鄰居聊聊,有任何疑問自己打電話到學區辦公室、學校網站查查問清楚,多參與Facebook親子版、查查Nextdoor討論區都有助於更認識這學區(學校)。

註1 考英文跟數學的註解,In 2021-2022, California tested students using the California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP), administered through the online Smarter Balanced Summative Assessments. These are comprehensive, end-of-year assessments of grade-level learning that measure progress toward college and career readiness. Each test, English language arts/literacy (ELA) and mathematics is comprised of two parts: (1) a computer adaptive test and (2) a performance task; administered within a 12-week window beginning at 66 percent of the instructional year for grades three through eight, or within in a 7-week window beginning at 80 percent of the instructional year for grade eleven. The summative assessments are aligned with the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) for ELA and mathematics. The tests capitalize on the strengths of computer adaptive testing-efficient and precise measurement across the full range of achievement and timely turnaround of results.

註2 The California Science Test (CAST) is an online assessment based on the California Next Generation Science Standards (CA NGSS) . All local educational agencies (LEAs) with eligible students in grades five and eight and in high school (grade ten, eleven, or twelve) administer the CAST. Every device used for testing must have the secure browser installed. Stable, high-speed Internet is required. The CAST is administered in grades five and eight and once to each student while that student is in high school. All students must take the CAST by the end of grade twelve, but have the option of testing in grade ten or grade eleven.

註3 關於更多預修課程 All about Advanced Placement (AP) courses and exams

後記:我的孩子才一歲半,最近開始送他去Daycare,我看了十幾所地方,看到後來霧煞煞,最後好像是在看房子,選了採光最好、後院最大而且是真正草皮的房子。當然有人在舊金山灣區親子同歡會推薦也是一個我會參考的重要指標,這是孩子的第一周,我只能讓他適應看看,如果無法適應,再看如何調整或換學校。

買了房子不像Daycare能隨時換,不過像我自己買的房子雖然環境好且生活便捷,但是並不是好學區,第一次買的房子,當初還沒想到要生孩子,更不用提之後的學區問題。如果真的以後想給孩子換學區,換房、租房或是私立學校也是一個選項。我有客戶預算不夠,選擇自己買下San Jose的房子保值,並且在Cupertino好學區租房,靈活的思維才不會限制了選擇。

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題,或是買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

全職加州地產經紀 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

Zillow 看看交易紀錄與評價

Fremont買到新房 採光超-級-好

今天交屋的房子在Fremont 、房子新、採光不是好,是超-級-好!!自帶側邊大陽台,位置也是整個社區最好,離馬路遠、距離鄰居也遠,很多窗戶看出去的鄰居不是社區是single family ,視野更開闊。

Buyer雖然在我待產時就諮詢過,但是認真開始看房是近三個月的事情,中間還因為房價漲了一波,急著問我該怎麼辦,我一直告訴他們不急,等你準備好的時候看看市況我們再討論下一步,buyer知道房市這陣子有緩一些,於是開始認真看房,結果這家房子跟我們當初設定的目標完全一樣,地點方便、屋況好、採光好、格局好又很新。

這間房子太漂亮,收到了13個offer,本來buyer自己找到的lender說要45天close,要放loan contingency ,我要下標之前想說天啊,十幾個offer這樣的財務條件怎麼跟別人搶?

於是我果斷幫客戶找了另一間銀行,我心目中的貸款女神15天就幫我們把貸款做下來,搶到了這間房子,buyer很開心,對他們來說也是剛好租約到期,無縫接軌搬新家,恭喜我的可愛小夫妻客人,替你們開心🥰🎉✌️

南灣房價走低 晚三個月買價差近60萬 投資者伺機入場

數位編輯孫愛薇/矽谷報導 2022-08-21 02:15


南灣路邊一處插著房屋售出的牌子。(數位編輯孫愛薇/攝影)


今年灣區房地產市場變化巨大,從年初的房價高漲,市場熱絡,出現加價超過50萬的現象,至5月開始因經濟面不利的消息與股市下挫,整個市場反轉,買氣快速急凍,市場從賣家市場迅速轉變為買家市場。原本在年初時一直競標失敗甚至離場的買家,現在又開始伺機而動。

目前租屋在半島Menlo Park的安太太,從疫情中期開始進場看房子,對於過去一年多市場瘋狂加價的狀態,她保守的下了幾個offer都沒有拿下房子,雖然一直在市場中看房,卻一直競標失敗。她表示,雖然現在價格下來的一點,但是好的房子很多也先已下市,所以還是再繼續尋找心中理想的房子。

剛剛買到位於Dublin房源的劉小姐表示,就是看準市場走低,趁機入場,之前一直加價的買家市場,手上的頭期款真的無法跟著加價,現在市場下來了,正好可以入場,終於買下來美後的第一套房,但後續電器的購買跟房屋的修繕,是另外一場戰鬥。

孫太太表示,希望能趁此次市場盤整的機會撿到好的交易,作為投資房使用,有明顯感受到市場上的庫存房增加,但是看房人潮從幾乎沒有人的5、6月,到8月已經有人潮回來,每次open house至少都有兩到三組同時在看房,6月時看房幾乎都只有自己一組人。

房仲簡明葳(Maggie Chien)表示,「今年6月到7月的市場反轉,手上的客人就有五組買到相較於年初更便宜划算的價格,這五組客人大多看了半年到兩年,一直到6、7月才下標到心儀的房子。」

最近幾周股市回穩,利率自6月中後漸進下調,買家和賣家對經濟前景的信心開始有所恢復,房地產的市場也逐漸活絡。但目前許多地區或房型還是傾向於是買方市場。

在瞬息萬變的灣區房場市場中,市場的轉變可能在一兩個月內就峰迴路轉,急漲或是突然平靜下來。目前灣區蛋黃區的好學區好房,仍舊搶手,剛性需求的買家,仍在市場上準備逢低買進,原本年初沒有辦法買到理想房的買家,這段時間成為他們進場的機會。

兩間距離步行可達的南灣好學區獨棟房,只差了三個月的購買時間,價格差近60萬,價差之高大,引發關注。

位在Sunnyvale的兩棟出售獨棟房都在Lochinivar Ave路附近,兩間距離是幾乎只差幾間房,根據Redfin資料顯示,一間在今年5月時購買,三房兩衛浴有室內室外都有整理過,購買價在270萬,另外一間四房三衛浴在8月時購買,買價只有210萬,只差距短短三個月的購買時間,兩間房的購買價格價差接近60萬元。

一間房的價差有可能因為房子本身的保養狀況有異,但因為這兩間房距離非常近,購買時間也很近,甚至後者的室內空間與房間數較多,卻買到更低60萬的價格,引發網友討論,目前房地產急跌的狀況是否已經到底,也討論到如果再跌是否會引發次貸危機,當初購買再高價的房子將會跌超過原本貸款的金額。

淡季下手預算內學區房

學區房✅🎯

今天成交的學區房雖然地址是Santa Clara ,但是是妥妥地Cupertino 學區,Buyer一開始看房的目標就很明確,要給孩子最好的學區跟環境,尤其小孩子漸漸大了以後,去了pre school/ kindergarten 越知道自己設定的目標是對的,下offer就更果斷啦。

這間房子雖然是Townhouse ,但是有一側沒有鄰居,東西坐向採光好,又有前院、後院,前幾天final walkthrough 要走的時候我還以為自己沒關燈,結果沒有啦,人家是採光超好☀️☝️ 屋主買房之後把廚房、衛浴設備都更新升級(我還沒看過那麼好看的水龍頭),衣櫃收納架子也做好了,是真正的Move in ready

後院連結雙平面車位,社區戶數不多,屬於中小型社區,社區有草皮、游泳池,往來 Cupertino生活圈買個鹹酥雞(咦?)就是幾分鐘的事。

上市第四天我們就果斷地下offer,跟listing agent 良好溝通,也看了去年成交價當作參考,我們先加個$50湊整數,buyer原本還以為要多加幾萬,沒想到屋主也同樣果斷地收了我們的offer 。

貸款經紀很給力,檔案早早做好等成交,一切都順順利利的,買家還說了好幾次,Maggie 我之後換大房子一定再找你。

謝謝肯定🙏🙏

這麼好的房子,一定讓你們事事順心繼續買大房。

#maggiechien#買房#買房經紀#學區房

#灣區地產經紀#矽谷經紀#矽谷買房經紀#矽谷房仲

#矽谷房市#矽谷經紀人

2022夏日Deal 3-3 Cupertino prime location

Deal 3-3昨天也順利過戶啦!!

這一個超級方便的Cupertino prime location

2100呎的生活空間、這樣的屋況

絕對也是一個大deal!

//

買家是灣區名人我不能說太多😊 我很感謝他們有很多選擇最後還是信任我、找我看房,常常自己跑去看open house 之後,還要我來認證把關才能買。

我們之前有機會在市場熱絡的時候買到一個95050的老房子,一條很美的路跟非常漂亮的房子,沒想到listing agent 讓別人加$1000做了雙邊的經紀人,那時覺得她非常惡劣,現在則是覺得唉唷,還好沒買到。

謝謝她讓我們買不到,我們在短短幾個月內等到deal,適時出手,反而買了一個更好的地點,也最適合買家需求的好房。

2022夏日Deal 3-2 Lynbrook high 學區房 x 土地8000呎

續昨天 《Deal 3-2 》

Lynbrook high 學區房 x 土地8000呎

Move in ready condition 2.31M

是社區道路小路沖(跟我家一樣☺️) 但是這社區根本沒啥外來車,車流量極少,旁邊都是超美的大房子。這區安靜、樹多、學區好、近公園、圖書館,Buyer買得好開心,正在積極計劃remodel的事。

撿到deal真的是要天時、地利、人和缺一不可

Buyer自己的運氣跟準備也很重要。

這種deal我暫時沒有了,不要來找我啊😆

恭喜我的客人,他們的agent 搬到外州才找上我的

一切都是緣分吧🥰✌️

2022夏日Deal 3-1 客戶說:「Maggie謝謝你阻止我加價」

《Deal 3-1 》

這週跟下週要成交的三間房,每一間都是deal☝️

記得簽名那天客戶說:「Maggie謝謝你阻止我加價」

當初在下offer的時候,buyer怕買不到,還打給我說我想再加一點,被我勸退了。

該加的時候我會叫你加,不該加的時候我們穩住吧。

照片第二張圖說寫錯了,是七*月初成交,不是上月初成交😃

//

今天在幫客戶出offer,市場比5-6月熱絡不少。

市場上房子少,許多seller 知道市場冷一點,很多都延遲上市或轉為出租,inventory 少,好房子還是要加價搶的。

45378 Tom Blalock St #202,FREMONT, CA 94539

奢華兩房Condo上市|

45378 Tom Blalock St #202,

FREMONT, CA 94539

如果你喜歡奢華型的新建大型社區,不要錯過剛上市的Condo,這間兩房 #邊間 是知名建商 #TollBrother 蓋的#MetroCrossing,地點位於南Fremont的Warm Springs新興發展區,走路10分鐘就到BART站,整個區塊都是新建房,建商越賣越高價,就是對這區域越來越有信心。

這社區有極為奢華的超大游泳池、烤肉區、Jacuzzi、宴會區、club house,還有看泳池半開放式的健身房,整棟樓有電梯、垃圾直接都trash shoot,我禮拜一去房子,看到打掃阿姨正在打掃樓梯間消毒,這些通通都包括在HOA fee$540裡頭了。

我們這間是邊間,雖然是高速公路第一排,但是建商用了特殊建材跟超厚玻璃,我在裡面根本沒聽到什麼聲音,光線很好,其實有點像住在台北大樓的感覺 🙂

空間採開放式格局設計,客廳、廚房很開闊,兩邊各有一個房間,主臥也是面積超寬敞、King Size床、梳妝台放完還是空間很大,兩個房間位於房屋兩側,彼此不受干擾,廚房是耐看的白色櫥櫃,儲物空間不少,另外配有storage。車位是前後停車,車庫有汽車充電設備了,街上停車也容易找到車位。自住投資皆宜,用來當作vacation home也很好。

這一區是Fremont重點開發區,除了大家都知道的Tesla,還有很多科技公司像是 Zoox, Seagate, Western Digital, ThermoFisher Scientific, and FM Industries.等等,新成立的Bringhurst Elementary小學也已經招生,未來淺力無窮。

Welcome to this brand-new condo Community with the luxurious community amenities built by Toll Brothers. This 1 YEAR NEW 2B/2B CORNER-UNIT home with 1 story living and 10 feet ceiling. It features an open-concept living space, a chef’s kitchen island with breakfast bar, winter white cabinets, and ample storage space. Large kitchen island with breakfast bar is great for family and friend’s gatherings. Impressive Primary suite with private on suite bath – dual sinks, shower stall, enclosed water closet and Walk-In Closet. Located exclusively at Norwood Junction at Metro Crossing. This 3 to 4-story gated building features just 28 homes, elevator access, gated underground parking garage with 2 assigned spaces with prewired EV outlet and additional storage space. Easy to park on the street when friends are visiting. Enjoy the community swimming pools, gym, club house within walking distance. Newly built Bringhurst Elementary School. Walk to BART station. Still under builders warranty.

這房子我們有跟艾麗小姐合作宣傳