Maggie Chien-CA Licensed Broker

幫客戶買賣過一間又一間的房子，有時候不得不承認，人算不如天算，機緣很重要。

今天交屋的年輕小夫妻聯繫我的時候說：

我們不急，十月之前買到就可以

我們也會跟其他經紀人聯繫

我們想一起看過房，再決定跟哪一個經紀人合作

沒關係、沒問題、通通都可以。

因為是好朋友介紹來的，當然要特別照顧一下。

沒想到第一次體驗完看房子之旅，我給他們安排看新房社區、舊house、舊的Townhouse比較一下各種優缺，之後他們就積極準備pre approval letter，第二次看房就在心中排名前兩名的夢幻區域下標，結果遇到43人搶標。當時我們有實力加，但是我們不追了。

第三次看房看到這間，賣出之後又回到市場上，因為原本買家擔心公司lay off 會受影響，放棄交易，於是我們找到機會殺價，一來一往直接省下幾萬元。

這間房子地點方便又位於巷子裡的巷子裡，少有往來車輛，非常安靜，屋主半年前全新裝修，全棟油漆、換了地板跟廁所，特別的是冷、暖氣+所有管道都是全新的，一般的flipper絕對不會做這件事情，主要是原屋主去年規劃還是想留下這房，只是後來計畫有變，所以出售房產。

買家當初想出價的時候也很糾結，畢竟在市場上剛開始看房，這間房子的機緣又來得太突然，在好幾個朋友跟家人還有我都一致認為這是一個好地點、好deal之後，我們先出個低價探個底，後來seller給我們一個counter offer，buyer決定接受，果斷拿下，恭喜我的客戶。

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最近不管是諮詢的買家或是朋友都常問我，利率高、又裁員，房價要跌了嗎？

去年我在推估今年的市場 https://tinyurl.com/nhbj4rka 的時候就說過，今年上半年一定還是旺，無奈今年雨季特別長，市場供給量仍遠遠不及市場需求，這波買氣會因為天氣繼續延長到下半年。不過如果能考慮自己裝修的人，仍有機會撿便宜的。

利率這麼高，到底誰在買房？我服務的都是剛需自住客人，我最近反問我另外一組客人說：「你們為什麼現在想買房？」

客人說：「我們去年還買不起，過了一年多存了一點錢，想說該買的時候就趕快買，利率高沒關係，只希望少一點人跟我們搶。」

想在矽谷落地生根的買家們，無論風雨依然努力不懈。

客人想知道矽谷投資房投報率，請我試算成本跟收益。

舉例一、現金60萬買 Condo

一間60萬元的Condo現金買家，租金收入以$2,500計算，年收入$27,500 (假設空租一個月)

每年稅金1.2% 是$7,200、管理費$1,500、HOA$4200 (350/月)、每年維修與保險概抓$2000

淨收入為$12,600 投報率大概2%

如果是貸款，沒有cash flow，只能等增值，HOA也吃掉了很多損益。

舉例二、現金100萬買 Single Family

一間100萬元獨立屋現金買家，月租金收入以$3400計算，年收入$39,100(假設空租0.5個月)

每年稅金1.2% 是$12000、管理費$2448、每年維修與保險概抓$3000

淨收入為$21652 投報率大概也是2.1%

Single Family比Condo來得好租，因為供給量相對少，需求量相對高一點。

如果是貸款，沒有cash flow，只能等增值

經常有很多客人考慮投資矽谷房地產，很多投資者問到現金流都卻步，不過上述的數據是盡可能貼近市場的數據，也是保守估計，我同時也考慮到了空租率並且計入。(如果你對租屋市場行情有興趣，可以參考 https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/ Zillow Rental 。)

如何提高租金報酬？

想提高租金報酬也有一些方式

第一、降低空置期間：寫文章的時候是2023年二月，最近矽谷有裁員潮，租屋市場確實比較緩和，租金也不再節節高漲，不過冬天本來就是租屋淡季，我們會盡可能在春天、夏天出租，空租時期會縮短一點，換房人潮較為踴躍。

第二、提早準備出租：房客要離開之前會給30-60天的通知，收到通知就可以開始先貼文找租客，並且盡可能跟現有租客約好開放帶看。

第三、買房的時候要確認房間數跟廁所數夠多：Work from home的人不少，4房一定比3房好租，3房一定比2房好租，廁所也要夠用，房子內套房多最好，如果說房間數多，還有人願意一間一間分租，租金報酬可能會高一點，或是有人經營Airbnb 或是交由像https://zeusliving.com/短租管理，整體收入也能提高。

不過分租管理不易，Airbnb或短租耗損還是比較大，而且會依照季節租金有別，如果像遇到Covid當時疫情大爆發時的暫停旅遊現象，收入就立即短缺，還是有所風險。如果要做短租，也要注意有些HOA不讓短租或有出租限制，購買前要多留意。

喜歡穩定收益的房東，還是會選擇出租給信用好、穩定的家庭。

長期增值數據

上圖則是2020年至今的增減幅度

既然如此，為什麼還是有人要投資矽谷房地產？

願意在矽谷買房投資者，主要還是看上長期增值淺力與保值性，長期增值數據可以參照上上圖，除了房價長期能穩定上漲，租金也是長期穩定上漲。

至於保值性則與就業、產業別、氣候、生活環境、便捷性等都有相關。且多數矽谷買方或投資者，都有家人、朋友或是小孩在此就學等地緣關係，才會選擇置產矽谷。

下面的影片第15分鐘也有提到投資議題。

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題，或是買賣房屋的需求

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

• 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
• 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
• LINE: chienmingwei
• https://www.compass.com/agents/ming-wei-chien/
• Zillow Review

全職加州地產經理 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In

Compass Report, Early February 2023

December is typically the month that sees the year’s lowest level of deal-making activity – i.e. listings accepting offers (going into contract) – which leads to January usually posting the lowest monthly number of closed sales. (Sales typically close 3 to 6 weeks after going into contract.) In the 11-county, greater Bay Area, accepted-offer activity in December 2022 and closed sales volume in January 2023 generally hit their lowest monthly points in 15 years. 

Typically, after the long holiday slowdown, the market just begins to wake up in mid-January before accelerating into spring. That being said, inflation has dropped substantially since June and interest rates since November, home prices are well down from last spring, stock markets are up 8% (S&P) to 15% (Nasdaq) YTD as of 2/3/23 (albeit with continuing volatility), and despite escalating layoffs in high tech, early indications in 2023 point to rebounding buyer demand. Open house traffic has jumped, more buyers are requesting listing disclosure packages, and there have been increasing reports of multiple offers and (often unexpected) overbidding of asking price. Based on this preliminary data (much of it still anecdotal*), it appears that buyer demand severely repressed by economic conditions in the 2^nd half of 2022 has begun to bounce back. 

A similar rebound began in mid-late summer 2022 for similar reasons – a significant drop in mortgage rates and a large rise in stock markets – which then quickly faded when positive economic developments went into reverse. Market activity then slowed further through the rest of 2022. There are currently considerable hopes for a more lasting economic recovery in 2023.

During the long high-tech and pandemic housing boom – which peaked in April/May 2022 – as each year began, the classic dynamic was for buyers to jump back into the market much more quickly than sellers, creating an immediate imbalance between supply and demand. Too few new listings compared to the quantity of motivated buyers sparked often ferocious bidding wars, leading to considerable home price gains virtually every spring. It is too early to conclude, after the general price declines and steep drops in market activity seen in the 2^nd half of 2022, that a sustained recovery in market conditions is now underway, and if it is, how quickly it will develop and its impact on prices in 2023. Many economic conditions remain challenging – with critical indicators still much weaker on a year-over-year basis – and forecasts by economists and analysts vary widely. Hopefully, economic conditions will continue to improve, providing the foundation for the recovery in real estate. In the meantime, preliminary indicators are surprisingly positive, and the CEO of Compass recently stated his belief that Q4 2022 saw the bottom of the market.

The “spring market,”  which can begin as early as February in the Bay Area, is typically the biggest selling season of the year, especially for luxury homes, and more data regarding new listings coming on market, listings going into contract, sales volumes, speed of sale, overbidding and sales prices will soon become available.* * Most “hard” data in real estate is based on closed, which generally reflects deal-making activity in the previous month, when offers were negotiated.  January sales mostly reflect the December 2022 market when new listing activity and buyer demand were at their lowest ebb in years. February and March listing and sales data will begin to better reflect early 2023 conditions.

SANTA CLARA COUNTY REPORT

SAN MATEO COUNTY REPORT

TRI VALLEY & SOUTH ALAMEDA COUNTY

SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY REPORT

https://www.compass.com/agents/ming-wei-chien/