加州地產經紀人協會最新一季的 購房指數 ( C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI) ) 出爐，根據加州地產經紀人協會最新數據統計，更多的加州人可以負擔起房子，主要原因是因為利率降低、市場轉淡加上民眾的收入增加所致。

2019年第一季的加州房產數據出爐，32%的家庭能買得起中位數約54.5萬元的房子，相對於2018年第四季的28%以及2018年的31%，有更多家庭能買得起房子。

Thirty-two percent of California households could afford to purchase the $545,820 median-priced home in the first quarter of 2019, up from 28 percent in fourth-quarter 2018 and up from 31 percent a year ago.

2019年第一季的加州房產數據出爐，32%的家庭能買得起中位數54.5萬元的房子，相對於2018年第四季的28%以及2018年的31%，有更多家庭能買得起房子。

A minimum annual income of $114,860 was needed to make monthly payments of $2,870, including principal, interest and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a 4.62 percent interest rate.

最低年收入11.4萬元的家庭，必須每個月支付2千870元在房貸、利息與地稅，這2千870元是以30年房貸，貸款利率4.62%計算。

Forty-one percent of home buyers were able to purchase the $450,000 median-priced condo or townhome. An annual income of $94,690 was required to make a monthly payment of $2,370.

41%的買家可以買得起45萬元的連棟式房子(Townhouse)或公寓型(Condo)，但是要買得起45萬元的房子，每月在房子上的負擔大概是2千370元。

More Californians could afford to purchase a home in the first quarter of 2019 as lower mortgage interest rates and cooler seasonal home prices combined with higher income levels to improve California housing affordability, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

根據加州地產經紀人協會最新數據統計，更多的加州人可以負擔起房子，主要原因是因為利率降低、市場轉淡加上民眾的收入增加所致。

The percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California in first-quarter 2019 rose to 32 percent from 28 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and from 31 percent in the first quarter a year ago, according to C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The index climbed above 30 percent for the first time in a year. California’s housing affordability index hit a peak of 56 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

根據購房指數(HAI)買得起房子的人由去年第四季的28%增加到今年第一季的32%，上次最高值是2012年第一季的56%。

C.A.R.’s HAI measures the percentage of all households that can afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in California. C.A.R. also reports affordability indices for regions and select counties within the state. The index is considered the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.

加州地產經紀人協會的購房指數計算基礎，是以買得起中價位的獨棟房(single-family home)計算，每一個地區與縣市各有不同數據，購房指數是加州買房者能力計算的參考指標。

A minimum annual income of $114,860 was needed to qualify for the purchase of a $545,820 statewide median-priced, existing single-family home in the first quarter of 2019. The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, would be $2,870, assuming a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 4.62 percent. The effective composite interest rate was 4.95 percent in fourth-quarter 2018 and 4.44 percent in first-quarter 2018.

買了一間54.5萬的房子家庭年至少必須在11.4萬元，如果房貸以4.62%計算，每月支付於房貸、利息、與地稅費用2千870元，房貸相較於2018第四季的4.95%較低，但是2018第一季的為4.44%。

Housing affordability for condominiums and townhomes also improved in first-quarter 2019 compared to the previous quarter, with 41 percent of California households earning the minimum income to qualify for the purchase of a $450,000 median-priced condominium/townhome, up from 37 percent in the previous quarter. An annual income of $94,690 was required to make monthly payments of $2,370. Thirty-nine percent of households could afford to buy a condominium/townhome a year ago.

除了買得起獨棟房(single-family home) 的人變多，買得起45萬元的連棟式房子(Townhouse)或公寓型(Condo) 的人也從去年的37%增加到41%。

Compared with California, more than half of the nation’s households (57 percent) could afford to purchase a $254,800 median-priced home, which required a minimum annual income of $53,620 to make monthly payments of $1,340.

Key points from the first-quarter 2019 Housing Affordability report include:

Housing affordability improved from first-quarter 2018 in 28 tracked counties and declined in 16 counties. Affordability in four counties remained flat.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, affordability improved from a year ago in every county. San Francisco County was the least affordable, with just 17 percent of households able to purchase the $1,532,500 median-priced home. Forty-six percent of Solano County households could afford the $430,500 median-priced home, making it the most affordable Bay Area county.

如果在舊金山灣區，能持有房的人也全面增加了。

然而，住舊金山市能買得起房子的比例較低，大概只有17%的家庭買得起中位數153萬左右的中價位獨棟房。Solano County的家庭比較幸福，年收入$90,590能買得起中價位約43萬元房子占比達46%。

Affordability results in the Southern California region were mixed as only Orange and San Diego counties recorded an improvement from a year ago, while San Bernardino and Ventura counties experienced a decline. Affordability was unchanged in Los Angeles and Riverside counties.

In the Central Valley region, affordability held even from a year ago only in two counties — Fresno and Sacramento — and fell in three counties — Kern, San Benito and Stanislaus. Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, San Joaquin and Tulare counties recorded improvements.

Housing affordability improved in all four counties in the Central Coast region, which includes Monterey, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz counties.

During the first quarter of 2019, the most affordable counties in California were Lassen (63 percent), Kings (57 percent) and Siskiyou (53 percent). The minimum annual income needed to qualify for a home in these counties was $47,340 or less.

Mono (10 percent), San Francisco (17 percent), Santa Cruz (17 percent) and San Mateo (18 percent) counties were the least affordable areas in the state. San Francisco and San Mateo counties required the highest minimum qualifying incomes in the state. An annual income of $322,480 was needed to purchase a home in San Francisco County, and an annual income of $323,010 was required in San Mateo County.

舊金山市區、聖馬刁、聖塔克魯斯這些距離灣區不遠的地方，還是名列最難買得起房子的前幾名縣市。目前 Santa Clara County (南灣) 中價位房 $1,220,000，舊金山$1,532,500 ，而San Mateo為 $1,535,000屬全加州最高中位數房價區。

原文來自加州地產經紀人協會 https://www.car.org

幾點說明：

第一、文章裡的利率還是比實際利率計算高很多
第二、全加州幅員太廣、房價差異很大、平均數據只是參考指標

買房不是不可能的事情，也非年收入30萬才能在矽谷買房，我們可以見面聊聊你的想法跟計劃，請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析。

• 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
• 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
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我是全職加州地產經理 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

三月過了一半，趁昨天剛好有個空檔看一下過去兩個月的加價率跟去化天數，2019 1月~2月的數據代表2018年底12月與2019年1月的買氣，多個城市都有反彈，更有買個房好過年的跡象。2018年5月以來，矽谷房市已經有跌幅，原因很多，股市、利率、漲多回跌、與最新的稅法都是其一。

2019房市有點回溫，加價率稍有回升、去化天數減少，但是仍不如2017/2018市況激烈，當初幾乎每一套房都是多個offer，最近市場則是要看產品了，目前要地點不差、屋況好、帶土地的房子是現在多數買方的首選。

關於未來房市走向，我們也在持續觀察中。可以預期的是今年房市要漲回2018年春天的機率應該不大，維持平盤是多數人的看法，在這樣的市場，你可以有更多選擇、可以放contingency買房，對於買家有更多交易上的保護。