2018年9月矽谷房市行情報告

好久沒有準時寫文章了！
九月份的周末都在看房，weekdays也是到處跑，剛好這陣子手上的買家南灣、東灣都有看，而上個周末(9/29~9/30)兩天，我整整看了20間房子。 Sunnyvale 兩房全數被我看完了，94087的house、Cambrian、Almaden地區也大概七成看過，Milpitas, N Fremont, Newark & S Union City新房、舊房我也是持續關注，
市場上買家還在，但卻因為市場上選擇多而放慢腳步。觀察不少地區，相較於今年3~5月的房價，依照區域有別，已經有10~15%跌幅。
房價漲跌向來就是供需面的互相影響，最快跌價的就是大型興建Town house/ Condo社區，因為此類型戶數多，如果遇到鄰居也在賣房子，甚至建商還有餘屋，銷售速度放緩，價格當然也有影響。
此外，大街上、高速公路旁、路沖、電塔、鐵道旁，此類型稱為「有硬傷」或「嫌惡設施」的房子在現在的市場上，影響尤大。除了電塔、鐵道、高速公路第一排我是特別堅持買方不要碰以外，能接受大街跟路沖者，只要地點好、學區好，反而是有撿便宜的機會。當然，如果有選擇，我們還是先從巷弄裡撿便宜就好。
相對保值的地方，就是學區跟交通房，不過學區房也不一定是鐵不跌，像是今年Great school 分數大改制，許多以往API高的好學區，分數紛紛調降，而市場上買家只對Redfin/zillow學區上的評分比較有感，所以以前老經紀(我老闆說的) 口中所謂的好區，舉例像是West San Jose 95129/95130 熱度非常明顯地不如往昔了。
價格相較今年最高點，有明顯跌幅的區域還真不少，在此就不一一列舉。當市場上一路往前衝時，大家奮不顧身搶房，現在房價過了最高點，買家心理的期待會變成「還會不會再跌？」每次我遇到這問題，就很希望大家去問問自己的算命師XD，如果你有高明的人指點，請他幫我回答這題。至於屋況、市場估價、檢查報告、賣方資訊、後續裝修、出租服務等等，我通通能回答。
歸納近期市況：
第一、買賣雙方正在拉鋸，多數賣方都必須讓步才能順利售出
也有開超低價吸引買家出offer的，比周邊成交價少個10~20%的「開價」還真不少，也有因此就收不到開高價的offer，只好又把價格調上去，最近Listing Agent不好做，賣房賣得戰戰兢兢，開太高沒人看，開太低又加不上去，所以不要再殺commission了 
九月幫客戶買到的兩間房子，都是低於今年春天甚至去年冬天的行情的價格
第二、市場上買家還在，但是持續觀望，下手一定想殺價
買家有剛需，看房行程未間斷，但如果目標不堅定，實在是難以下手。在這樣的市況下，如果我是買家，我一定也會有同樣的猶豫心態。不過殺價殺不殺得成，買不買的到，還是要回歸開價跟屋況，屋況新、開價低，多數還是要往上加的。
第三、投資客還是虎視眈眈，市場游資很充裕
還是有客戶天天LINE我：「這間不錯」「這間怎麼還沒賣掉？」投資客不如真實剛需的買家，現在要下手，難免猶豫不決。投資型客戶的煩惱是身邊有籌碼、可是股市太高也不知道放哪去。現在想入場投資，必須待長期持有，且一定要慎選地點啊。
(矽谷的租金報酬真的不好，扣除所有持有成本，如果有3%就算很高啦! 矽谷房價已高，不可能有高報酬！真的不是我不幫你找房…)
第四、利率持續攀升，房價小幅修正
舉例來說，之前100萬的貸款如果是30年固定利率4%，月繳$4774，現在貸款90萬，固定利率4.75%月繳金額為$4695，房價雖減但是利率不斷升，持有成本也不一定會變低
第五、市場上餘屋量越來越多，價格紛亂
有時候觀察同一社區、同一neighborhood，如果有多間餘屋者，價格一定守不住，但是如果屋況好、條件好，像是邊間、雙車位等等，不彷把握機會出價。
寫到這裡，大家應該擔心房價又要繼續跌了！？ 我還是不悲觀啦，但是要慎選房、慎選地點，至於怎麼挑，跟你的經紀人好好討論一下。
以下數據就讓大家參考一下月與月之間的變化，去年同期跟現在的加價率、銷售所需時間平均值，至於各區域性的行情與出價等資訊，就需要精細的comparable、還有要與屋主跟Listing agent談談談、磨磨磨，磨出好價錢。

Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Sunnyvale' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 920 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 920 listings

Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Palo Alto' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 440 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 440 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Mountain View' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 540 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Mountain View‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 540 listings

Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Cupertino' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 320 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Cupertino‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 320 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
CB
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ’14 – Cambrian‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is '17 - Saratoga' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 310 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ’17 – Saratoga‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 310 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is '5 - Berryessa' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 770 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 770 listings
MI
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Milpitas‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 520 listings
AM
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ’13 – Almaden Valley‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 400 listings
BH
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ’12 – Blossom Valley‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 940 listings
EG
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ‘3 – Evergreen‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 690 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Redwood City' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 670 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Redwood City’ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 670 listings

謝謝上個月成交客戶的最新評價

我是 National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。

如果您有任何買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話 408-505-3003 (如未接聽，請留言)
  • 電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • 微訊:maggiechien002
  • LINE:chienmingwei

Author: Ming Wei (Maggie) Chien 簡明葳

我的中文名字是簡明葳，大家都叫我Maggie，現在在美國矽谷/硅谷(Silicon Valley)擔任房產經紀人 Broker DRE#01973756 。 我曾在台灣當過九年的財經記者，蘋果日報房地產中心(地產王&家居王)、自由時報財經中心房產線總資歷長達七年。我在台灣採訪過數千間建案，在矽谷看房歷年破千間以上，這幾年的矽谷房地產經紀人經驗，建立了我完整的買房資歷與經驗。 在矽谷買房子，是一個充滿挑戰的過程。我能提供試算服務、貸款諮詢與轉介、為你挑選適合妳需求的房子、一同看屋，與你一起挑戰競標的過程。我們將逐條念過合約內容，下標之前我會誠實地揭示屋況、屋主詳細情形、報告，而後續的交屋、租屋、修繕、改建等諮詢都在服務範圍之內。 關於賣房，房價評估、市場分析、修繕建議、上市時間建議、Staging評估、風格挑選、行銷方式分析、海報、Post、媒體推廣、行銷媒體選擇、挑選offer輔助，後續交屋，都是我擔任賣房經紀人時的職責。 我是 National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。 I am a California realtor/broker associate in the Silicon Valley, currently working with Keller Williams Realty. I have always had a passion for Real Estate. As an Editor/Journalist in Taiwan, I had written hundreds of news articles covering Real Estate and Interior Design. After moving to the SF Bay Area in 2014, I followed my passion and embarked on a successful career as a Real Estate agent/broker. For my buying clients, I understand home ownership is a big part of the American Dream and I will help you to achieve this goal with logic and data: - Find/compare/verify the house of your need - Review all property inspection reports, seller disclosures, permit history, HOA docs, etc. with you - Explain all contractual documents to help you make the strongest offer with confidence - Share a buyer's only checklist with you prior to making an offer For my selling clients, I understand it can be a very stressful process determining when to sell, how to price and market the house. I will greatly reduce your burden by: - Thorough analysis on market condition, timing and price - Prepare all documents and escrow account - Touch up/renovate the house with my team of contractors - Showcase the house with professional staging - Advertise and conduct open house - Review and select the strongest offer with confidence Check my review and give me a call for a free consultation today.

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