2016矽谷房市放暑假!

  • 抱歉,我不是神仙

今天是9/1號,剛好把7月+8月的房市表現寫一寫,在還沒看數據之前,先跟大家聊一聊最近市場上的心聲,這兩個月我遇到最多人問我「房價會不會跌?」

我在六月跟七月時跟大家說,目前沒有跌,但是有機會撿便宜,不用加價太多,想買房的請把握機會! 

為什麼呢? 因為暑假大家都去度假了啊!比較少買方在市場上,特別是美國國慶日時,城裡好像少了幾乎快一半的人出城,因此有不少人在七月初下手,買了個好價錢,當時產品不多,但是因為競爭少,加價率不會太高,甚至在市場上太久的房子,可以用listing price 或是低於 listing price買到。

我就有客人用現金搶到低於市價5%且五天成交的個案。

不過8月時市場上又回歸4月份時的熱絡,我們可以在部分城市看到加價率又回升的案例(像是Palo Alto, Cupertino, Santa Clara, Mountain View等,請參考下面房價走勢圖),顯示市場稍微回溫,尤其是精華區、好地段域表現更加明顯。

  • 淡季要來了!

本周的長周末(Labor day weekend)是傳統旺季,照理說,市場上會有大量房子推出,但是至今看來是還好,也呈現往年銷售量到九月就開始收縮的型態,秋冬之後,本來就是矽谷房市淡季,但是也是有機會撿到便宜的季節,房價總是在10~1月份穩定,甚至有時候能用可以用listing price 或是低於 listing price買到,直到2月就開始跳漲10%,已經連續好幾年均是如此,想買自住房的,請把握秋冬的機會,但是能選的房子也會相對減少許多

past 8 years sale volume
Time frame is from Jan 2008 to Dec 2016 Postal City is one of ‘Cupertino’, ‘Mountain View’, ‘Palo Alto’, ‘San Jose’, ‘Santa Clara’, ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from 101,567 listings

 

房市從2008到2016年至今,目前漲幅突破100%,目前市場上買方加價力道已經衰退,但是為什麼房價沒有下跌?主要是股市近半年驚驚漲,目前仍處於高點多空交戰,矽谷房市多數為工程師、創業家等買方支撐,股票的價值對於此類型買方顯得相當重要,因此股票若位於高點,房價很難出現大幅轉折。

past 8 years sale price
近八年房價走勢 Time frame is from Jan 2011 to Aug 2016 Postal City is one of ‘Cupertino’, ‘Mountain View’, ‘Palo Alto’, ‘San Jose’, ‘Santa Clara’, ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from 67,482 listings

 

 

很多人問我要不要買房,老話一句,如果是長期持有,在矽谷可說是越早買越好,除非你的租金遠低於行情,或是還沒有真正的實際需求,像是結婚、生子等等,早知道早點買,這是矽谷房市的硬道理。

  • 奉勸大家一句,買房之後,請把Redfin, Zillow給關了,因為這一兩年是不會有太多變化的,就算有,未來還是修正之後往上走勢,現在房價多少錢都與你無關,請你要賣的那天再來關心就好。

 

接下來看看區域表現! 加價率與成交日期有短期震盪都屬正常現象,每個月成交產品多元,都會有所影響,主要還是要回歸房價走勢大格局!

PA
Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 420 listings
CU
Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 560 listings

 

 

Berryessa
今年漲很大,且近幾個月釋出量最多的Berryessa,加價率穩定未深跌,後續值得關注。 Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 800 listings
SU
Sunnyvale看起來是加價率大幅下跌,其實是市場上出現的產品都很兩光所致,很多1間廁所的,或是在大型apartment社區附近的,誰要加價買啊? 別擔心,下個月加價率肯定又回來了。 Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 880 listings
SC
Santa clara 好區還是要加個10% 才拿的到喔! Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 910 listings

本文為本人Maggie Chien親自撰寫,轉載請註明出處,若有任何房市問題請來電4085053003!

Maggie會熱心為您解答Mingwei Business card

 

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