2016矽谷房市放暑假！

今天是9/1號，剛好把7月+8月的房市表現寫一寫，在還沒看數據之前，先跟大家聊一聊最近市場上的心聲，這兩個月我遇到最多人問我「房價會不會跌?」

我在六月跟七月時跟大家說，目前沒有跌，但是有機會撿便宜，不用加價太多，想買房的請把握機會！ 

為什麼呢? 因為暑假大家都去度假了啊！比較少買方在市場上，特別是美國國慶日時，城裡好像少了幾乎快一半的人出城，因此有不少人在七月初下手，買了個好價錢，當時產品不多，但是因為競爭少，加價率不會太高，甚至在市場上太久的房子，可以用listing price 或是低於 listing price買到。

我就有客人用現金搶到低於市價5%且五天成交的個案。

不過8月時市場上又回歸4月份時的熱絡，我們可以在部分城市看到加價率又回升的案例(像是Palo Alto, Cupertino, Santa Clara, Mountain View等，請參考下面房價走勢圖)，顯示市場稍微回溫，尤其是精華區、好地段域表現更加明顯。

  • 淡季要來了！

本周的長周末(Labor day weekend)是傳統旺季，照理說，市場上會有大量房子推出，但是至今看來是還好，也呈現往年銷售量到九月就開始收縮的型態，秋冬之後，本來就是矽谷房市淡季，但是也是有機會撿到便宜的季節，房價總是在10~1月份穩定，甚至有時候能用可以用listing price 或是低於 listing price買到，直到2月就開始跳漲10%，已經連續好幾年均是如此，想買自住房的，請把握秋冬的機會，但是能選的房子也會相對減少許多。

past 8 years sale volume
Time frame is from Jan 2008 to Dec 2016 Postal City is one of ‘Cupertino’, ‘Mountain View’, ‘Palo Alto’, ‘San Jose’, ‘Santa Clara’, ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from 101,567 listings

房市從2008到2016年至今，目前漲幅突破100%，目前市場上買方加價力道已經衰退，但是為什麼房價沒有下跌?主要是股市近半年驚驚漲，目前仍處於高點多空交戰，矽谷房市多數為工程師、創業家等買方支撐，股票的價值對於此類型買方顯得相當重要，因此股票若位於高點，房價很難出現大幅轉折。

past 8 years sale price
近八年房價走勢 Time frame is from Jan 2011 to Aug 2016 Postal City is one of ‘Cupertino’, ‘Mountain View’, ‘Palo Alto’, ‘San Jose’, ‘Santa Clara’, ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from 67,482 listings

很多人問我要不要買房，老話一句，如果是長期持有，在矽谷可說是越早買越好，除非你的租金遠低於行情，或是還沒有真正的實際需求，像是結婚、生子等等，早知道早點買，這是矽谷房市的硬道理。

  • 奉勸大家一句，買房之後，請把Redfin, Zillow給關了，因為這一兩年是不會有太多變化的，就算有，未來還是修正之後往上走勢，現在房價多少錢都與你無關，請你要賣的那天再來關心就好。

接下來看看區域表現！ 加價率與成交日期有短期震盪都屬正常現象，每個月成交產品多元，都會有所影響，主要還是要回歸房價走勢大格局！

PA
Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 420 listings
CU
Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 560 listings
Berryessa
今年漲很大，且近幾個月釋出量最多的Berryessa，加價率穩定未深跌，後續值得關注。 Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 800 listings
SU
Sunnyvale看起來是加價率大幅下跌，其實是市場上出現的產品都很兩光所致，很多1間廁所的，或是在大型apartment社區附近的，誰要加價買啊？ 別擔心，下個月加價率肯定又回來了。 Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 880 listings
SC
Santa clara 好區還是要加個10% 才拿的到喔！ Time frame is from Sep 2015 to Aug 2016 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 910 listings

本文為本人Maggie Chien親自撰寫，轉載請註明出處，若有任何房市問題請來電4085053003！

Maggie會熱心為您解答

Author: Ming Wei (Maggie) Chien 簡明葳

我的中文名字是簡明葳，大家都叫我Maggie，現在在美國矽谷/硅谷(Silicon Valley)擔任房產經紀人 Broker DRE#01973756 。 我曾在台灣當過九年的財經記者，蘋果日報房地產中心(地產王&家居王)、自由時報財經中心房產線總資歷長達七年。我在台灣採訪過數千間建案，在矽谷看房歷年破千間以上，這幾年的矽谷房地產經紀人經驗，建立了我完整的買房資歷與經驗。 在矽谷買房子，是一個充滿挑戰的過程。我能提供試算服務、貸款諮詢與轉介、為你挑選適合妳需求的房子、一同看屋，與你一起挑戰競標的過程。我們將逐條念過合約內容，下標之前我會誠實地揭示屋況、屋主詳細情形、報告，而後續的交屋、租屋、修繕、改建等諮詢都在服務範圍之內。 關於賣房，房價評估、市場分析、修繕建議、上市時間建議、Staging評估、風格挑選、行銷方式分析、海報、Post、媒體推廣、行銷媒體選擇、挑選offer輔助，後續交屋，都是我擔任賣房經紀人時的職責。 我是 National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。 I am a California realtor/broker associate in the Silicon Valley, currently working with Keller Williams Realty. I have always had a passion for Real Estate. As an Editor/Journalist in Taiwan, I had written hundreds of news articles covering Real Estate and Interior Design. After moving to the SF Bay Area in 2014, I followed my passion and embarked on a successful career as a Real Estate agent/broker. For my buying clients, I understand home ownership is a big part of the American Dream and I will help you to achieve this goal with logic and data: - Find/compare/verify the house of your need - Review all property inspection reports, seller disclosures, permit history, HOA docs, etc. with you - Explain all contractual documents to help you make the strongest offer with confidence - Share a buyer's only checklist with you prior to making an offer For my selling clients, I understand it can be a very stressful process determining when to sell, how to price and market the house. I will greatly reduce your burden by: - Thorough analysis on market condition, timing and price - Prepare all documents and escrow account - Touch up/renovate the house with my team of contractors - Showcase the house with professional staging - Advertise and conduct open house - Review and select the strongest offer with confidence Check my review and give me a call for a free consultation today.

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