2021的矽谷房市展望

最近接了一些買房諮詢,很多人很好奇房市怎麼走?我的推估在文章最下面。

我們先來看看過去一整年,Santa Clara County的統計資料。

這裡也有我在疫情期間所發表的文章,尤其是我在疫情期間在股市熔斷、疫情嚴峻的背景之下發表的第一篇文章,就鼓勵客戶積極買房。去年一系列關於買房的文章可以點這裡 股市熔斷+疫情下的矽谷房市就有八篇文章,現在回頭看,都是歷史。去年我幫助了22位客戶買到房子,且多數都在十月之前就成交,那些價錢都已經回不去了,恭喜去年買到房子的客戶

Avg Days On Market & Sale to List Price Ratio
平均銷售所需天數與加價率
加價率在12月出現80%應該是個錯誤,我已經寫訊息問MLS 是否有需要更正。
Time frame is from Jan 2020 to Dec 2020
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 14,000 listings
Sales by Price Range ($,000)  12月平均成交價,成交價突然飆天高應該是個錯誤,我已經寫訊息問MLS 是否有需要更正。
Sales Volume by Area 
整年度不分房型,總銷售金額最高的地區在Sunnvale、其次為Gillroy& Morgan Hill一帶、
再來是Santa Clara,應該是新房銷售最多所致,中古屋成交間數並不多。

Sales by Price Range ($,000)
整個Santa Clara County 還是以買80-100萬美金、120-140萬美金的買房族群為最大宗
Number of Homes For Sale vs Sold
每個月上新房與成交件數,成交數據因為需要貸款的關係,通常會落後一個月 

看完地方數據,再來看看一些經濟數據以及加州地產局的市場預估 有興趣的人可自行下載簡報,或是聽取45分鐘的解說。其中有一些各大城市、還有退休區域的分析,關於2021年的市場預測主要在90-100頁,除了經濟面,人口的移動、疫情的控制、疫苗,氣候變遷包括未來的野火都有可能影響加州的房市,最好跟最糟的情況如何等等,蠻有意思的。

樂觀與悲觀的市場消息
房貸市場還是很健康
借錢的槓桿比例還是維持在正常水準
基本預測
最糟預測
依然正面樂觀,因為我們是金色加州啊 🙂

我們正面臨GDP降低、失業率增加、疫情影響,但是又處於史上低利率環境,矽谷買房族群主要還是以科技產業的員工為主、因為疫情關係,換房與賣房人數相對稀少,造成房市一房難求,如果是屋況不太差的房子,常常房子一上市,如果seller願意收preemptive offer,一周以內就會售出。 如果是開低價、屋況好再加上有便捷的交通或是好學區,10+以上offer是常見,20-30份offer也不罕見。

最近我對房市的感覺,跟2017、2018年初搶房的時候感覺很像,Single family加價率10-15%很常見,搶房要謹慎,回歸需求、理性地分析是否是好地點跟好學區,未來是否容易脫手等。目前市場上的淡旺季現象,已經被疫情打亂,我個人預估,疫情稍緩之後,才會有更多房子回到市面上出售,現在卡住沒換房的人,屆時才會更有動力換房,過完春天,single family可能會更好買一點,而不是數十人搶一房的情況。

目前利率仍低,如果疫情沒好轉,利率增幅應該有限,雖然已經看到一點點回漲跡象。根據我過去的經驗,利率只要3.75%以下,大家都還是在搶房,回到4%的水準,大家才會謹慎考慮一下買房的速度。

至於好地點跟相對新的TH跟condo過去一整年都沒有漲,如果預算有限的買家們,現在是出手的機會了。

而正在考慮換房或賣房的人,現在是優化資產的好時機,如果你曾經不小心買了有一些缺點的投資房,不仿趁機售出,伺機再買房。

總而言之,這是個賣房的好年,買Single family會有點辛苦的一年,TH & Condo則能把握一下,也許有機會買到好價錢。

第一季行程已滿,2021四月起才有辦法接洽新的買房客戶,請多擔待,賣房不受限制,隨時可以聊聊,關於賣房的文章,這裡有懶人包

祝福大家2021年能順利、安心地買到自己喜歡的房子,開心賣到好價錢。

Cell: 408-505-3003 / Maggie 如未接聽請傳訊息或留言
Email:chienmingwei@gmail.com / mingwei@kw.com
Wechat:maggiechien002
LINE:chienmingwei
My FB page:Maggie Chien-Realtor

Maggie怎麼幫你賣房(三)賣房流程

低利率低庫存的環境下,今年是一個賣房的好年,如果你再也懶得管出租房,或是你已經搬出自住房快兩年,又或者你考慮做1031交換,優化資產,或者是考慮換房(但是要有不好換、買方眾多難搶房的心理準備),賣房之前,您可以先讀一下我在2017年底寫過的文章「為賣房-換房做準備」,如今房市熱銷的情況非常類似。

Do you know the possible tax benefit from selling your primary residence? Thinking about 1031 exchange? Right now, it is a seller’s market in the Bay Area. With near record-low interest rates and low inventory, it is a good time to sell your property.

我寫過一篇文章,是自己在短短七天內就搞定房子準備上市

如果你想換房,我們可以提早做很多準備。

If you are thinking about selling your house in the Bay Area, here is what Maggie’s team can do for you. Please see the listing process below.

以下是賣房前的準備:

#1 上市1-2個月前:先讓我為你做一個presentation,了解我是怎麼賣房子、其中怎麼開價、協助修繕(包括選購remodel材料,選擇油漆顏色、規劃修繕流程等)、還有我們的攝影(3D、video團隊)、Staging、Gardener(需不需要種草、重鋪草、mulch、修樹、剪樹)、與工班修繕(粉刷、Caulking、微裝修),幫你的房子升級到最佳顏值,房子準備好了之後要如何行銷房子,幫助屋主做到最大的曝光值,賣到最好的價錢。

屋主請詳細告知房子有沒有remodel、 有沒有改建過(With or without permit)

Up to two months prior to listing on the market: I will go over my listing service presentation, which explains the entire selling process and the paperwork involved:

  1. Determine the listing price based on the current market condition and recent comparable transactions
  2. Manage a minor remodeling process (as needed)
    1. Review property remodel history (with or without permit) to determine the best bang-for-the-buck upgrades
    1. Advise on material selection: paint color, flooring material, countertop, etc.
    1. Oversee the remodeling process
  3. Staging
    1. Highlight the property to create the best first impression
  4. Landscaping (if applicable)
    1. Lawn/mulch/tree trimming to showcase a well-cared for home
  5. Media creation
    1. Custom website with 3D tour and video advertisement
  6. Maximize views by targeted buyer (by price level, age group, etc.) via social media ad buys

#2 上市前四周:請讓我在上市1個月前看過房子,了解屋況與所需工程,這樣才能把時程安排妥當。

4 weeks prior to listing: in-person meeting at the property to assess the current condition and finalize upgrade/staging/landscaping plans

#3 上市前三周:會開始進行打掃、修繕、粉刷、輕裝修與維修。如果有裝修,需下定材料,安排裝修。

3 weeks prior to listing: getting the property updated/touched-up for staging

#4 上市前兩周:Order Listing sign, 向社區管理單位訂HOA的文件(如果有HOA)、開Escrow專戶,發Title Report、還有下定NHD Report、房屋檢查。在Redfin放上Coming Soon,已經在我個人加入的Facebook Agent Group、公司的全體信箱、Wechat Group宣傳Coming Soon訊息

2 weeks to-go: order the listing sign, order HOA docs (if applicable), open an escrow account, obtain the title report, NHD (natural hazard disclosure) report, house inspection report.  Start social media campaign and notification on Redfin/Zillow

#5上市前一周:安排Staging、房屋檢查、完成屋主Seller Disclosure Package

1 week to-go: Staging: final walk-through (agent visual inspection disclosure), complete the seller disclosure package

#6 上市最後確認:鞋套、洗手液、盆栽、Disclosure&reports上傳完畢、Set up showing的calendar、Host Open House

1 day to go: provide shoe covers, sanitizers, upload disclosures/reports, setup showing calendar/open house calendar

#7 上市期間:Showing回報、巡邏防盜、防Homeless入住、觀察人氣Set up Offer due date

On the market!  Provide on-going showing statistics and determine the offer due date based on showing popularity

#8 Offer due day:Preview offers、Go over offers with the seller、拉價錢、選offer…

Offer due day: Offer comparison/review (% down payment, proof of income, contingencies, check-in with the loan officer, etc.)

#9 貸款期間:確認估價師行程、確認貸款流程順利、撤除Staging

In contract!  Help with the appraisal and loan process, remove staging

#10 Close of Escrow:打掃、最後交屋交鑰匙。

Close of Escrow!  Final cleaning and ensure the property is smoothly handed over to the buying agent

以上是賣房的大概流程,但是買賣過程通常不會完全沒事,時不時會有一些小插曲,這個時候經紀人的買賣房經驗就能派上用場。

While this might not appear to be an overly complex process, the devil is always in the details.  Having an experienced agent who understands the current market, knows how to get the right eyeballs to see the listing, and quickly mitigates any unexpected/unforeseen issues during this whole process will ensure a smooth transaction at a great price!

Our Listing Fee Covers : Staging, Website (photos, virtual tour & video), Remodel Project Management, Deep Clean, Touch up, Listing Agent Commission, Buyer Agent Commission and Property Maintenance During Showing Period. Here are some of my listings,

http://www.1513cannact.com

http://www.289dondero.com

http://www.1016bellantelane3.com

Maggie怎麼幫你賣房(一) Maggie 怎麼幫你賣房(二)

2017年底寫過的賣房準備

Maggie is a member of National Board of Realtor, California Association of Realtors, and Silicon Valley Association of Realtors。

You can contact Maggie Via

Cell: 408-505-3003 / Maggie
Email:chienmingwei@gmail.com / mingwei@kw.com
Wechat:maggiechien002
LINE:chienmingwei
My FB page:Maggie Chien-Realtor

Maggie’s Review From Buyers and Sellers

請同業尊重,每一篇文章都是我花了很多時間一個字一個字打出來的請勿任意複製貼上,或是簡單改寫!如您要分享,請註明出處 https://maggiechien.com/謝謝。