First quarter 2019 housing affordability

加州地產經紀人協會最新一季的 購房指數 ( C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI) ) 出爐,根據加州地產經紀人協會最新數據統計,更多的加州人可以負擔起房子,主要原因是因為利率降低、市場轉淡加上民眾的收入增加所致。

2019年第一季的加州房產數據出爐,32%的家庭能買得起中位數約54.5萬元的房子,相對於2018年第四季的28%以及2018年的31%,有更多家庭能買得起房子。

Thirty-two percent of California households could afford to purchase the $545,820 median-priced home in the first quarter of 2019, up from 28 percent in fourth-quarter 2018 and up from 31 percent a year ago.

2019年第一季的加州房產數據出爐,32%的家庭能買得起中位數54.5萬元的房子,相對於2018年第四季的28%以及2018年的31%,有更多家庭能買得起房子。

A minimum annual income of $114,860 was needed to make monthly payments of $2,870, including principal, interest and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a 4.62 percent interest rate.

最低年收入11.4萬元的家庭,必須每個月支付2千870元在房貸、利息與地稅,這2千870元是以30年房貸,貸款利率4.62%計算。

Forty-one percent of home buyers were able to purchase the $450,000 median-priced condo or townhome. An annual income of $94,690 was required to make a monthly payment of $2,370.

41%的買家可以買得起45萬元的連棟式房子(Townhouse)或公寓型(Condo),但是要買得起45萬元的房子,每月在房子上的負擔大概是2千370元。

More Californians could afford to purchase a home in the first quarter of 2019 as lower mortgage interest rates and cooler seasonal home prices combined with higher income levels to improve California housing affordability, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

根據加州地產經紀人協會最新數據統計,更多的加州人可以負擔起房子,主要原因是因為利率降低、市場轉淡加上民眾的收入增加所致。

The percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California in first-quarter 2019 rose to 32 percent from 28 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and from 31 percent in the first quarter a year ago, according to C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The index climbed above 30 percent for the first time in a year. California’s housing affordability index hit a peak of 56 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

根據購房指數(HAI)買得起房子的人由去年第四季的28%增加到今年第一季的32%,上次最高值是2012年第一季的56%。

C.A.R.’s HAI measures the percentage of all households that can afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in California. C.A.R. also reports affordability indices for regions and select counties within the state. The index is considered the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.

加州地產經紀人協會的購房指數計算基礎,是以買得起中價位的獨棟房(single-family home)計算,每一個地區與縣市各有不同數據,購房指數是加州買房者能力計算的參考指標。

A minimum annual income of $114,860 was needed to qualify for the purchase of a $545,820 statewide median-priced, existing single-family home in the first quarter of 2019. The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, would be $2,870, assuming a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 4.62 percent. The effective composite interest rate was 4.95 percent in fourth-quarter 2018 and 4.44 percent in first-quarter 2018.

買了一間54.5萬的房子家庭年至少必須在11.4萬元,如果房貸以4.62%計算,每月支付於房貸、利息、與地稅費用2千870元,房貸相較於2018第四季的4.95%較低,但是2018第一季的為4.44%。

Housing affordability for condominiums and townhomes also improved in first-quarter 2019 compared to the previous quarter, with 41 percent of California households earning the minimum income to qualify for the purchase of a $450,000 median-priced condominium/townhome, up from 37 percent in the previous quarter. An annual income of $94,690 was required to make monthly payments of $2,370. Thirty-nine percent of households could afford to buy a condominium/townhome a year ago.

除了買得起獨棟房(single-family home) 的人變多,買得起45萬元的連棟式房子(Townhouse)或公寓型(Condo) 的人也從去年的37%增加到41%。

Compared with California, more than half of the nation’s households (57 percent) could afford to purchase a $254,800 median-priced home, which required a minimum annual income of $53,620 to make monthly payments of $1,340.

Key points from the first-quarter 2019 Housing Affordability report include:

Housing affordability improved from first-quarter 2018 in 28 tracked counties and declined in 16 counties. Affordability in four counties remained flat.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, affordability improved from a year ago in every county. San Francisco County was the least affordable, with just 17 percent of households able to purchase the $1,532,500 median-priced home. Forty-six percent of Solano County households could afford the $430,500 median-priced home, making it the most affordable Bay Area county.

如果在舊金山灣區,能持有房的人也全面增加了。

然而,住舊金山市能買得起房子的比例較低,大概只有17%的家庭買得起中位數153萬左右的中價位獨棟房。Solano County的家庭比較幸福,年收入$90,590能買得起中價位約43萬元房子占比達46%。

Affordability results in the Southern California region were mixed as only Orange and San Diego counties recorded an improvement from a year ago, while San Bernardino and Ventura counties experienced a decline. Affordability was unchanged in Los Angeles and Riverside counties.

In the Central Valley region, affordability held even from a year ago only in two counties — Fresno and Sacramento — and fell in three counties — Kern, San Benito and Stanislaus. Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, San Joaquin and Tulare counties recorded improvements.

Housing affordability improved in all four counties in the Central Coast region, which includes Monterey, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz counties.

During the first quarter of 2019, the most affordable counties in California were Lassen (63 percent), Kings (57 percent) and Siskiyou (53 percent). The minimum annual income needed to qualify for a home in these counties was $47,340 or less.

Mono (10 percent), San Francisco (17 percent), Santa Cruz (17 percent) and San Mateo (18 percent) counties were the least affordable areas in the state. San Francisco and San Mateo counties required the highest minimum qualifying incomes in the state. An annual income of $322,480 was needed to purchase a home in San Francisco County, and an annual income of $323,010 was required in San Mateo County.

舊金山市區、聖馬刁、聖塔克魯斯這些距離灣區不遠的地方,還是名列最難買得起房子的前幾名縣市。目前 Santa Clara County (南灣) 中價位房 $1,220,000,舊金山$1,532,500 ,而San Mateo為 $1,535,000屬全加州最高中位數房價區。

原文來自加州地產經紀人協會 https://www.car.org

幾點說明:

第一、文章裡的利率還是比實際利率計算高很多
第二、全加州幅員太廣、房價差異很大、平均數據只是參考指標

買房不是不可能的事情,也非年收入30萬才能在矽谷買房,我們可以見面聊聊你的想法跟計劃,請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析。

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

我是全職加州地產經理 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

2019年4月矽谷房市行情報告

今年雨水特別多,植物長得特別好,但是灣區最近花粉症很嚴重,我也是眼淚鼻涕直流,相信很多人都有這樣的感覺。每天開車,車子上薄薄一層淡綠色,看起來很像濾鏡,其實就是很惱人的花粉。住在灣區這幾年,花粉症好像越來越嚴重了,前兩三年沒啥事,有時候鼻塞昏沉,今年會流涕與淚的。唉,我好像找到灣區的缺點了 !

據說花粉過敏吃藥有效,可是我是一個不想攝取過多藥物的人,不想研究也不想吃,去了Trader Joe’s 買了當地蜂蜜吃,如果再更嚴重,下周再去買花粉吧!記錄一下每年春天才會有的灣區事,接下來看房市吧。

跟上個月推測的一樣,大部分的城市,市場都有熱絡一點。但是最近半個月,市場上的inventory變多,價格可能會先穩住,上漲太多的機率不太高。我的建議是繼續看繼續下offer,也許你有機會拿到好deal!

不要再問我會不會漲會不會跌了,想長期留在矽谷就趕緊買吧,現在很好挑。每一個月花那麼多錢幫人家養房子會比存在自己的房子好嗎?如果你有換房計畫,先賣後買或先買後賣都能安全操作,我們可以約時間見面討論一下。

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse'
Results calculated from approximately 180,000 listings


Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 890 listings


Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Postal City is ‘Cupertino’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 310 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Postal City is ‘Mountain View’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 480 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 430 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Postal City is ‘Los Altos’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 300 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Postal City is ‘Menlo Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 380 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 770 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Area Name is ’10 – Willow Glen’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 640 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Postal City is ‘Milpitas’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 550 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Area Name is one of ‘Almaden Valley’, ‘ Blossom Valley’, ‘South San Jose’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 1,900 listings

Time frame is from May 2018 to Apr 2019
Area Name is one of Cambrian, Campbell
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 1,600 listings

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題,或是買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

我是全職加州地產經理 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

2019年3月矽谷房市行情報告

先來貼一下各區域的 Average DOM & Sale to list price Ration

買氣跟氣溫一樣,已經逐漸回升,除了Open House 來人量,offer數相較於去年底到今年初,也明顯增加,從下列數據應該可以看出一點買氣回升的端倪。

不過市場還是沒有2017/2018的春天熱!

多數買家觀望心依舊,Disclosure送出去的多,收offer數大概是Disclosure的1/3,送offer還是不會太積極加價,但是幾個offer裡,總還是會有黑馬崛起的。市場正在發熱,我們繼續觀察後續發展。

Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is '18 - Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 540 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ’18 – Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 540 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ’19 – Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 890 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is '8 - Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ‘8 – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ’14 – Cambrian’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 810 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is one of ’13 – Almaden Valley’, ’12 – Blossom Valley’, ’11 – South San Jose’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 1,900 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 780 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ‘6 – Milpitas’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

小心沒有permit的房子

小心沒有permit的房子
某年幫一位客戶買房,賣家曾經remodel過卻沒有申請permit,但是已經是年代久遠的事。
投標之前我們也再三確認屋主做了哪一類的remodel,一些櫥櫃的更換,水電管線都沒有變動,廁所只換了vanity,也就安心買了下來。
屋主要求rent back 2個月,但是租約未到已經先行搬走,搬走時還很小氣,馬上打電話先切斷了電,由於Santa Clara是Santa Clara utilities,city 派人來切電,眼看這房子remodel過,不分青紅皂白,就開了張罰單,要求up to code。
我的客戶是第一次買房,賣家也堅稱持有過程中沒有做過任何需要permit而沒有申請的remodel,因為屋子已經成交,罰單必須要由新屋主負責,我跟Listing agent都傻了眼,根本沒遇過類似情況…
接下來就是跑市府問清楚,連市府permit center都詫異,這樣的情形怎麼會發生。為了要解決問題,我們只好當作是我們曾經remodel,先畫圖floor plan、到市府申請許可,期間還有模有樣的必須申請Title 24,就是為了要符合city Plan Submission Requirements 當初為了省錢,我們自己花了很多時間自己畫了圖,交上、申請許可、叫檢查,看看出了什麼問題,之後請工人修復、檢查、修復然後檢查通過,過程花了整整一個月,還好期間非常幸運,不僅櫃台的人通融,讓我用自己的格局圖,就拿到permit,也能call for an inspection,後來檢查員只挑出一些電盤老舊、加裝GFCI等小問題,我們請來licensed electrician,就在第二次檢查,把問題順利解決了 ,一切都算是不幸中的大幸。
到底什麼裝修需要permit?什麼不需要,像是San Jose City有一些標準可供查閱,點擊連結就能看到。但是每一個city都有不同的標準,請先諮詢在地市政府permit center。
分享自身的經驗給大家,就連這種不需要permit的裝修,都有可能會被找麻煩了,何況是動了管線、加建、改建卻沒有permit的建築。買房子的時候,從disclosure中去讀seller提供的屋況與歷史,到city permit center查詢歷史也很重要。賣房子的時候不管有沒有permit的整修,一定都要誠實揭示告知。
我是專職加州地產經紀人 CA Real Estate Realtor/Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題,或是買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

2019年1~2月矽谷房市行情報告

三月過了一半,趁昨天剛好有個空檔看一下過去兩個月的加價率跟去化天數,2019 1月~2月的數據代表2018年底12月與2019年1月的買氣,多個城市都有反彈,更有買個房好過年的跡象。2018年5月以來,矽谷房市已經有跌幅,原因很多,股市、利率、漲多回跌、與最新的稅法都是其一。


2019房市有點回溫,加價率稍有回升、去化天數減少,但是仍不如2017/2018市況激烈,當初幾乎每一套房都是多個offer,最近市場則是要看產品了,目前要地點不差、屋況好、帶土地的房子是現在多數買方的首選。


關於未來房市走向,我們也在持續觀察中。可以預期的是今年房市要漲回2018年春天的機率應該不大,維持平盤是多數人的看法,在這樣的市場,你可以有更多選擇、可以放contingency買房,對於買家有更多交易上的保護。


Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’Property Type is ‘Residential’Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’Results calculated from approximately 460 listings

Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Postal City is 'Mountain View' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 540 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 540 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Area Name is ’19 – Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Area Name is ’18 – Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 590 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 830 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Area Name is ‘6 – Milpitas’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 590 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Area Name is ‘3 – Evergreen’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 770 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Area Name is ’14 – Cambrian’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 860 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 Area Name is one of ’13 – Almaden Valley’, ’12 – Blossom Valley’, ’11 – South San Jose’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 2,100 listings

這個冬天的修房小雜事

家中全室remodel完畢大概9個月了,有時候必須得過了一年四季才會知道房子有那些問題。這個冬天我們做了幾件事情,跟大家分享一下。

一、 Gutter Guard: 我家隔壁有顆大紅木,夏末開始我家前院、屋頂都是落葉,直到還是持續有零星落葉,還好夏末快下雨之前,我就請清理gutter的handyman幫我加上網子,可以隨時打開來看那種,未來希望可以自己上屋頂吹吹落葉就好,而不需要太費勁清理gutter。

我們加網子而沒加Gutter protectors/cover是想說網子還能看到gutter大概狀況,最近覺得檔大葉子效果不錯,至於會不會淤積,接下來再觀察一下。

關於Gutter周邊產品有很多,有Rain gutter foam、gutter protectors、cover等,大家可以上網查查不同的效用,Home Depot都買的到,施工時注意安全,如果家裡周圍沒有大樹,也許根本不需要加裝。

二、Downspout Extension: 前幾天下大雨才發現之前gutter水往下流的管線離房子好近,很怕地基因此受潮,於是買了Downspout Extension希望水流能遠離房子跟地基。

三、Filter:因為所有冷暖氣機都是新的,窗戶也很少開,但是卻發現灰塵問題異常嚴重,之前出門一陣子回來感冒還久咳不止,想來想去不對勁,一拆開暖氣濾網口才發現,原來之前裝冷暖氣廠商給的濾網薄如紙,根本沒有過濾空氣的效用,家中的灰塵就不斷地循環著。

安裝全新管線加冷暖氣機上萬美金,一個濾網最貴也不過$20~$30,摸摸鼻子自己換上最好的,建議都是一年至少要換一次,濾網購買之前要記得看一下尺寸。

四、Threshold & Weatherstrip,冬天的冷風吹才知道門縫有多大,我家門特殊點,所以地板是自己貼上Vinyl Replacement Insert for Threshold,購自Homedepot。另一個小門框則是從Amazon買到的Weatherstrip自行貼上,很容易操作。

分享幾樣自家的小小工DIY,如果有更專業的建議,歡迎留言指教。

房子總是有些小問題需要不斷修修補補👨‍🔧👩‍🔧,最近又發現全新的Stucco已經有些細微裂縫,地基外圍也有小小裂縫,應該是house settlement,有機會再問問建築師跟結構技師該怎麼處理,再來分享給大家。

#Remodel #修房子 #Handyman #Gutter

出價的藝術

 

出價的藝術

最近的房市雖然不熱,但是有逐漸回溫的趨勢。房市溫和對大家最有利,買賣在合理價是最難的事情。

昨天跟客人討論disclosure之後準備出價,幾乎所有的買家都會問我「怎麼出價?」能給什麼建議,通常來說我在出價之前會做幾件事情。

第一、CMA: Comparative Market Analysis, 有時候說很快我們就叫comps,我會找出附近類似產品成交價格,讓你了解一下周邊行情,甚至我會抓半年到一年的行情,讓你知道一下走勢。

第二、屋況分析:這房子必須維修多少錢,客戶自身想要做的後續維修需要多少錢?你想做哪一些補強呢?換馬桶、換鏡子換洗手盆,裝修廚房、換洗碗機、換抽風機等等,我們可以概抓一下預算。 如果新房,我也可提供建商的upgrade大概的所需費用行情。

第三、市況:最近市場狀況如何,需不需要加價,我們可能會遇到多少「對手」也想下offer,跟listing agent的密切溝通的結果就成了下offer時重要線索。


第四、房子與市場:這房子在市場上多久了,也就是我發listing給你參考時,你會看到一個DOM (days on the market),為什麼放那麼久?是屋況太可怕沒人要?還是市場低迷等,搞清楚原因我們再投標。

第五:獨特性:每一個房子都是獨一無二的,就算在同一個社區也會因為座向、有沒有風景、棟距、停車位、採光、臨路條件、有沒有面對嫌惡設施等價格有很大的差異。

出價之前大概會整理上述原因,討論出一個價位,搭配自身的出價條件(像是cash offer、或是pre approved,或是down payment多寡等等)總和所有自身優點送出offer。

有些人可能會看到市場變差一點,就想砍價砍到底,低價送offer不是不可能,讓我這個包打聽的先去跟listing Agent探一探訊息,如果賣家價格實在很硬,或是賣家脾氣不太好,砍到人家不爽這offer就GG了,有時還是得將心比心嘛,如果你在賣房收到一個很差的offer,可能直接不回應了!

雖然必須顧及買賣雙方的kimochi,但是買家經紀還是在幫買家做事與捍衛權益的,絕對不是賣家。

 

 

 

2018年的矽谷房市分析報告

先跟大家說聲新年快樂!

happy-new-year.jpg

希望大家都有一個很棒的聖誕節&新年假期,我也回來上班啦,如果有關於矽谷房地產交易需求,可以開始跟我聯繫!

在此先整理一下2018年房市概況,再聊聊2019年的計畫

(想看之前所有房市分析請點擊這裡)

看數據之前,相信大家都感受到市場不再熱絡,在利率不斷攀升、全球經濟放緩以及中美貿易戰影響股市震盪的背景下,漲不停的房市終見喘息。

面對房市的修正,對於長期持有的買家、投資人都是一個機會,買家有更多選擇,投機客、Flipper縮縮手,也盼望這樣的調整讓市場更健康。

2018年9月矽谷房市行情報告一文,我就提到現在價格好談,後來我在10月~12月成交的房子,除了新裝修的房子還是熱門,其他一般condition的房子,幾乎都是低於listing Price成交,客戶在2018年6月進contract的全新房,我們也去跟建商談了價錢,建商也同意降價了。

2018年的房市走勢,1~5月隨著2017年的漲勢價格持續攀升至頂點,建商、社區行情依然不斷創下新高,後續因為利息調整,6月的open house我們就見到冷清的現象,7~9月還算平穩,美國國慶之後甚至還有一波熱潮,後來隨著股市震盪,10~12月都是修正的格局持續至今。

目前的市況因為房屋選擇變多,買家回歸理性,大致可以分為三種情形。第一、屋況條件好、地點好,依然深受歡迎,價格修正不到5%。第二、地點好、屋況普通的房子,買家評估只要能簡易修繕,價差能接受,多半也都會成交,價格修正約10%。第三、屋況不好、地點不夠好的房子則常常有買家棄標,必須back on the market 或甚至下市不賣了,價格修正率多達20%。

———————————————————————————————————————-

綜觀去年南灣交易量,本文數據均以2019年1月2日 MLS統計數據為準

2018年南灣:San Jose, Milpitas, Santa Clara(不包括Alviso), Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale 所有 Listing 數量為14119間,銷售了10847間

比較2017年同期(2018年1月2日 MLS統計數據)

2017年南灣:San Jose, Milpitas, Santa Clara(不包括Alviso), Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale 所有 Listing 數量為12657間,銷售了11898間

2018買氣的確不如2017,但是數據僅供參考,因為這其中不包括未上市的銷售、部分建商蓋好的全新房屋銷售。

———————————————————————————————————————-

此外,從我在MLS很常擷取下來使用的 Average DOM & Sale to list price Ration也能明顯的看出加價率減低、成交天數增加,顯示市場熱度不再瘋狂,買家回歸理性。先來看看我最熟悉的Sunnyvale,平均加價率幾乎是0%

SU

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 920 listings以上這一篇是以Sunnyvale為例,南灣其他城市也都是類似的走向

Santa Clara

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 890 listingsm

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Area Name is ‘6 – Milpitas‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 500 listingsCB

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Postal City is ‘Campbell‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 420 listingsCU

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Area Name is ’18 – Cupertino‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 550 listingsB

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 730 listingsPA

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 440 listings以上數據能看出市況走向,但是每一個社區、每一個學區的成交價都與位置地點有別而有極大差異,如果要下offer,還是要做好精準的comparable.

矽谷房市的熱絡度跟股市一直是正相關,高點整理對於股市是健康的,觀察市況,想買房、換房的人一直都沒有少,但是股市震盪導致信心不足,預期2019應該會是維持高檔整理、交易量減少的現象。

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題,或是買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

我是專職加州地產經紀人 CA Real Estate Realtor/Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

2018年9月矽谷房市行情報告

好久沒有準時寫文章了!
九月份的周末都在看房,weekdays也是到處跑,剛好這陣子手上的買家南灣、東灣都有看,而上個周末(9/29~9/30)兩天,我整整看了20間房子。 Sunnyvale 兩房全數被我看完了,94087的house、Cambrian、Almaden地區也大概七成看過,Milpitas, N Fremont, Newark & S Union City新房、舊房我也是持續關注,
市場上買家還在,但卻因為市場上選擇多而放慢腳步。觀察不少地區,相較於今年3~5月的房價,依照區域有別,已經有10~15%跌幅。
房價漲跌向來就是供需面的互相影響,最快跌價的就是大型興建Town house/ Condo社區,因為此類型戶數多,如果遇到鄰居也在賣房子,甚至建商還有餘屋,銷售速度放緩,價格當然也有影響。
此外,大街上、高速公路旁、路沖、電塔、鐵道旁,此類型稱為「有硬傷」或「嫌惡設施」的房子在現在的市場上,影響尤大。除了電塔、鐵道、高速公路第一排我是特別堅持買方不要碰以外,能接受大街跟路沖者,只要地點好、學區好,反而是有撿便宜的機會。當然,如果有選擇,我們還是先從巷弄裡撿便宜就好。
相對保值的地方,就是學區跟交通房,不過學區房也不一定是鐵不跌,像是今年Great school 分數大改制,許多以往API高的好學區,分數紛紛調降,而市場上買家只對Redfin/zillow學區上的評分比較有感,所以以前老經紀(我老闆說的) 口中所謂的好區,舉例像是West San Jose 95129/95130 熱度非常明顯地不如往昔了。
價格相較今年最高點,有明顯跌幅的區域還真不少,在此就不一一列舉。當市場上一路往前衝時,大家奮不顧身搶房,現在房價過了最高點,買家心理的期待會變成「還會不會再跌?」每次我遇到這問題,就很希望大家去問問自己的算命師XD,如果你有高明的人指點,請他幫我回答這題。至於屋況、市場估價、檢查報告、賣方資訊、後續裝修、出租服務等等,我通通能回答。

歸納近期市況:
第一、買賣雙方正在拉鋸,多數賣方都必須讓步才能順利售出
也有開超低價吸引買家出offer的,比周邊成交價少個10~20%的「開價」還真不少,也有因此就收不到開高價的offer,只好又把價格調上去,最近Listing Agent不好做,賣房賣得戰戰兢兢,開太高沒人看,開太低又加不上去,所以不要再殺commission了 
九月幫客戶買到的兩間房子,都是低於今年春天甚至去年冬天的行情的價格
第二、市場上買家還在,但是持續觀望,下手一定想殺價
買家有剛需,看房行程未間斷,但如果目標不堅定,實在是難以下手。在這樣的市況下,如果我是買家,我一定也會有同樣的猶豫心態。不過殺價殺不殺得成,買不買的到,還是要回歸開價跟屋況,屋況新、開價低,多數還是要往上加的。
第三、投資客還是虎視眈眈,市場游資很充裕
還是有客戶天天LINE我:「這間不錯」「這間怎麼還沒賣掉?」投資客不如真實剛需的買家,現在要下手,難免猶豫不決。投資型客戶的煩惱是身邊有籌碼、可是股市太高也不知道放哪去。現在想入場投資,必須待長期持有,且一定要慎選地點啊。
(矽谷的租金報酬真的不好,扣除所有持有成本,如果有3%就算很高啦! 矽谷房價已高,不可能有高報酬!真的不是我不幫你找房…)
第四、利率持續攀升,房價小幅修正
舉例來說,之前100萬的貸款如果是30年固定利率4%,月繳$4774,現在貸款90萬,固定利率4.75%月繳金額為$4695,房價雖減但是利率不斷升,持有成本也不一定會變低
第五、市場上餘屋量越來越多,價格紛亂
有時候觀察同一社區、同一neighborhood,如果有多間餘屋者,價格一定守不住,但是如果屋況好、條件好,像是邊間、雙車位等等,不彷把握機會出價。
寫到這裡,大家應該擔心房價又要繼續跌了!? 我還是不悲觀啦,但是要慎選房、慎選地點,至於怎麼挑,跟你的經紀人好好討論一下。

以下數據就讓大家參考一下月與月之間的變化,去年同期跟現在的加價率、銷售所需時間平均值,至於各區域性的行情與出價等資訊,就需要精細的comparable、還有要與屋主跟Listing agent談談談、磨磨磨,磨出好價錢。

Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Sunnyvale' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 920 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 920 listings

Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Palo Alto' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 440 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 440 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Mountain View' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 540 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Mountain View‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 540 listings

Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Cupertino' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 320 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Cupertino‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 320 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
CB
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ’14 – Cambrian‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is '17 - Saratoga' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 310 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ’17 – Saratoga‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 310 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is '5 - Berryessa' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 770 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 770 listings
MI
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Milpitas‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 520 listings
AM
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ’13 – Almaden Valley‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 400 listings
BH
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ’12 – Blossom Valley‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 940 listings
EG
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Area Name is ‘3 – Evergreen‘ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 690 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is 'Redwood City' Property Type is one of 'Residential', 'Residential Income (1-4 units)' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 670 listings
Time frame is from Oct 2017 to Sep 2018 Postal City is ‘Redwood City’ Property Type is one of ‘Residential’, ‘Residential Income (1-4 units)’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 670 listings

謝謝上個月成交客戶的最新評價

我是 National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。

如果您有任何買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話 408-505-3003 (如未接聽,請留言)
  • 電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • 微訊:maggiechien002
  • LINE:chienmingwei