疫情下的 矽谷房市概況 7

It’s all about confidence. 我有一個地產名嘴好朋友,我們常常交換心得,其中她讓我印象最深刻的一句話,就是房地產好壞,看的都是信心。


上周末、昨天、今天都有看房,明顯感受到買家信心回到市場,房市回溫,跟這天氣一樣熱熱熱,市面上剛剛上市的房子,如果開價得宜、房子沒太大問題,這幾天開始已經都能感受到multiple offers的熱度。


目前的市況,很明顯地感受到從SIP初期瞬間冷掉的房市人氣,即將遞延到今年夏天。市場上也可以看到不少三月下市的房子,重新上市就有好offer的情況。


因為SIP而關在家的時候,更讓人對於居家條件的需求再度改變。房市轉熱,買家可是要冷靜思考自己所需要的空間是什麼,不要瞎搶。


舉例來說,如果Work From Home成為趨勢,房間數多、多一個辦公室可以在家工作最好,最好還要能鎖上門,避免開會時寵物跟小人物入鏡頭 ><


在家關久了夫妻對看很討厭,多一個客廳能多一台電視也好。如果不愛看電視,多一個空間大家冷靜一下,所以有個living room可能不夠了,再來一個Family room更貼近需求。


大家都開始自己煮菜,廚房如果有中島就更好了,能盡情地把中島拿來做水餃、做麵包、擀麵,反正空間越多越好用,如果只有電爐可能不夠看,房子要有瓦斯爐對有些人來說可能突然變得很重要,如果小Condo一定要有陽台,能種種花草BBQ也是不賴。


我則是覺得我家車庫好像不夠大,很想改成大一點的健身房,也很想改造洗衣房,增加更多收納功能,因為囤貨沒地方塞,老房子也沒Pantry,其實收納空間明顯不足啊。


搶房已經開始,SIP卻還沒結束,你看的房子是真正安靜嗎? 還是現在只是車流量少?你沒注意到。 SIP還沒結束,塞車可能不是問題,如果開放上班,你能忍受住遠一點、或是公司可以讓你常常Work From Home嗎? 冷靜想想,你需要什麼樣的房子與空間。

以上是一點點最近看房的心得與大家分享。

圖片出處為最近喜歡的品牌櫃子Treku 剛剛趁打折買了他們家的電視櫃,滿意 🙂

聖荷西首座遊民短住中心開幕

聖荷西首座遊民 短住中心開幕了,大概地址位於1411 Mabury Road San Jose

聖荷西遊民短住社區 落腳貝律耶沙 州眾議員朱感生看好

記者江碩涵/聖荷西報導 2020年02月28日

原文轉載自世界日報網站

加州眾議員朱感生表示,希望社會能夠給予新機構更多機會。(記者江碩涵/攝影)聖荷西第一個「遊民迷你屋社區」就在捷運貝律耶沙(Berryessa)站對面,該區也是北聖荷西較多華人群居的聚落。(記者江碩涵/攝影)

聖荷西第一個「遊民迷你屋社區」就在捷運貝律耶沙(Berryessa)站對面,這一帶也是北聖荷西較多華人群居的聚落。加州眾議員朱感生(Kansen Chu)表示,三年工作期以來,與聖荷西市府一起和當地社區開了九次會議,溝通協調許久,希望社會能夠給予新機構更多機會,也能讓這樣有助於社會的機構不斷拓展至每個角落,幫助更多遊民重生。

朱感生27日參與「遊民迷你屋社區」開張活動。他表示,該片土地遼闊、又是政府擁有,鄰近捷運站,遊民未來要找工作以及重新回到社會都有相當大的幫助,且這個社區也只能讓原本就是聖荷西的居民入住,因此這些人本來就在聖荷西民眾日常生活中,機構只是協助他們更容易、更快速回歸正軌,因此要給予肯定。

灣區地產經紀人簡明葳(Maggie Chien)表示,「遊民迷你屋社區」距離當地的社區約要開車三分鐘,並不是緊鄰著其他住宅區,不過居民可能多少仍會擔憂住家旁就有遊民機構,機構剛開始的幾個月內可能會對當地區域房市多少有些短暫的影響。

長遠來看,她認為只要遊民社區運作順利、沒有太大的問題,加上這是市政府第一個示範的機構,應該會花較多心力維護和把關,相信久了以後,居民也能理解該機構對社會的幫助,對社區不會造成太長遠的影響,長期來看有個好的遊民機構,對社會仍有正向幫助。

住在貝律耶沙附近的居民王麥可說,原本就不太常去捷運貝律耶沙那一帶,多半還是在大華超市附近出沒,知道捷運貝律耶沙附近有遊民社區後,覺得可能在安全上會有些顧慮和考量,以後會盡量避免去那個區塊;不過還是要看政府怎麼運作這個社區,若運作得安全,之後應該不會有影響。「遊民迷你屋社區」距離當地的社區約要開車三分鐘。(記者江碩涵/攝影)

過去一年來,矽谷房市怎了?

註:10/17 再次更新,文末補上MLS 發布2019/9月與8月、2019 9月與去年同期比較數據

好幾個月沒有發行情報告,主因還是市場有點紛亂,並沒有明確的方向,所以不具參考指標。拉長期一點看,才會明顯感受也確立市場真的是跌價了,平均來說,成交中價位數減低、銷售量減少、新上市與銷售比例降低 (上市的多、真正賣掉的不多)。

以下兩張是加州地產協會的平均數據,目前只更新到八月,再下方的MLS數據才有到九月份的,我會一一解釋。

根據地產協會最新發布的數據,2019年8月Santa Clara County的房子(在此僅限Single Family) 要18天才會收到offer,38.2%上市的房子要降價求售,開價就是賣價 (這是平均值,在市場上買房子還是要參照周邊行情),中位數房價119萬美金,相較去年同期減少8.1%;市場上有一千三百多套房子在賣,相較去年同期多了6.1%, 共有875間賣掉;相較去年同期減少6.9%。

而根據MLS (Multiple Listing Service 經紀人專用平台)最新數據,2018第四季、2019第三季,平均來說100間房子正在銷售的房子大概只有51%順利售出,已經是近4年最低。

相較於2017年第一季到2018第二季都有超過65%甚至高達76%的Listing 售出甚遠。

過去一年Santa Clara Number of Homes For Sale vs Sold 
(銷售中的房子與售出房子逐月比例)
Time frame is from Oct 2018 to Sep 2019
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 20,000 listings
過去一年Santa Clara Number of New Listings vs Sold 
(新上市的房子與售出房子逐月比例)
Time frame is from Oct 2018 to Sep 2019
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 19,000 listings

降價求售的比例數據在2018年10月達到最高峰後,2019年從2月到8月也不斷攀升,超過20%的Listing會降價求售。

Santa Clara County過去一年銷售平均所需天數與加價率
Time frame is from Oct 2018 to Sep 2019
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 13,000 listings

看到這裡你應該會覺得奇怪,剛剛加州地產協會八月不是說要18天就賣掉嗎?加州地產協會數據只有抓Detached Single family,我則是選擇抓Single family, condo, townhouse。

過去一年Santa Clara 銷售價格中位數
(Sale Prices Over Time, Median)
Time frame is from Nov 2018 to Oct 2019
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from 12,359 listings

2019的市場還有幾點特殊現象可以跟大家分享

第一、Flipper減少了,Flipper占買家比例從2014 30%, 2015 26%, 2016 20%, 2017 24%, 2018 26%, 目前2019年僅有18%。 ( 可喜可賀 )

第二、賣房子住養老院還是市場上的大多數,大概有25%、大換小或搬到老人村者的年紀15%,其次才是換屋的中青年人,加起來12%。

第三、越來越多房屋持有者是賣了房子搬離加州,比例高達30%。上一次的高峰是2005年31%,2009只有19%,2015只有22%。

第四、All Cash Buyers減少了,達到10年來最低,僅19.7%。自2008年起就超過20%直到2012年逼近30%。

第五、 Listing Agent非常積極追買家,過去幾年賣房子非常容易,好賣、快賣、大賣,根本不用做什麼事就等offer上門,現在則是買方市場,反而是 Listing Agent 要來尋求Buyer agent合作,同時也會認真抓客人。

第六、買家有所保留,多轉為觀望心態,或希望在還是依然很貴的市場下撿點便宜。Open House來人數這一季相較於前半年增加不少,disclosure 也發出去不少,但是受到市場跌幅,下offer數減少了。

看完這些,你覺得市場很糟糕嗎? 其實也沒有!

市場還是有一些樂觀因素, 同時看看過去兩年在Santa Clara的失業率,僅有2.1%~3.1%之間,是歷史上最低,加上摘自Zillow Rental 的資料也顯示租金持續上升,2012~2019偶有修正卻持續上漲至新高點,顯示矽谷依然有大量且穩定的居住需求。

根據加州地產協會最新的2020分析報告,2010~2018 整個Bay Area新的工作機會有84萬5833個,新建房數只有18萬3111間,也能充分說明為什麼租金能不斷上揚,具有買房需求者依然眾多。

而充滿爭議性的數據,RHNA 區域房屋需求分配(Regional Housing Needs Allocation, RHNA)  顯示San Jose City依然有大量住房需求。

根據 Milken Institute’s Best-Performing Cities index  今年最新數據,矽谷 ( San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA )是十大表現最佳城市的第二名。舊金山( San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA MD)則為第四名。

利率依然維持低檔等等。

以下附上加州地產協會在9月26日發表的2020年加州地產分析與最新預測報告

抓了兩張2018實際房地產相關數據與2019 年的預測比較,以及針對2020的預測。

2018年實際數據相較於 2019年的預測與目前數據
加州地產協會針對2020年加州房地產相關數據的預測

加州地產協會在9月26日發表的最新預測報告,也給成員一些建議。

賣房子的時候要精準標價,用數據告訴你的客人而不要用個人意見

協助客人搬遷往來於你熟悉的區域

買方分享專業知識與正確的數據

利率應該會到達史上低點,告訴客戶們記得Refinance

賣房子的時候要把房子搞得跟HGTV節目中的一樣漂亮 (這點好好笑,不過淺顯易懂,我有專業工班跟多家Staging company合作喔!)

不斷強調數據數據數據!還好以上我都有一直做到 🙂

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題,或是買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

我是全職加州地產經理 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

買房故事分享-百房中之選

今年的房市整理,買家一定要自願且快樂地下offer。

這組客戶超有緣,我們在台灣有共同的朋友,然後灣區相遇,去年就跟我說要看房買房,我們一起觀察房市且等待今年資金到齊之後,積極看房。

平均一個禮拜看5間房,據客戶自己說看了五個月、看了大概破百間房 (有嗎? 有嗎? 我真的忘了)。我還算喜歡看房,客戶自己的爸爸也是房地產專家,跟懂房子的人一起看房總是很爽快,所以我也真沒去計算我們看過幾間,不過我記得這是第三個offer。

一開始我們鎖定Cambian & Almaden,看來看去一樣的預算還是青山綠水的大房型泳池別墅獲青睞,於是Almaden成了我們的首選。

由於工作性質的關係,我們必須挑選move in ready的房子,前兩次offer都少了幾萬,這一次客人很猛,油門要催到底,不過我比較謹慎,也提醒地基需要一點費用加強。勸退之下,幫客戶少了三萬投標,最後counter再加一萬,而估價報告的結果則比我們買價還多2.95萬,loan agent還開玩笑說買到已經賺到。

最近遇到的賣家都很好,這個賣家分別給了兩次walk through,尤其是賣家工程師先生介紹建材真是鉅細靡遺。 三月才剛剛remodel的房子,用了重達700磅的大門、兩個電子壁爐、全新的廚房、電器、窗戶、全新紅木的deck、Andersen Sliding door、電動窗簾等等,雖然remodel房子是為了賣房,卻也選用中上的建材,不是隨便馬虎草率了事。

最後交鑰匙的時候,還留下自己聯繫方式、contractor聯繫方式、保固資料、介紹泳池設備包括濾水器、熱水器等如何使用、交代家裡的線路、建材、剩下的油漆、地板板材、甚至填縫劑通通都留下來給我的客戶了。

現在的市場很難買也很好買?!

很難買的是無法下定決心的買家,如果猶豫不決,心理預期房市會再下跌,一心想殺到不合乎行情的價格,這樣的客人只好被市場淘汰了,當買家心理還沒完全準備好,什麼價格都不夠便宜。

好買的原因則是房市回歸理性,比起去年瘋搶的市場,更有充裕的時間好好看房,且利率回跌,購買成本相對低些。

如果有點耐心,加上財務跟心理都到位,一定會買到非常滿意的房子,今年價格比去年更好談、且同樣預算可以從Condo進階到townhouse、從townhouse進階到single family,或是在區域性的差異,可以買到更好的地點。何不把握機會?

我的客戶就是在這樣的情況下,買到一個全新裝修、Move in ready 且理想中的超值房。再次恭喜我的客戶,搬家準備迎接節慶!🏡🍁🏊‍♀️

為保護客戶隱私,圖非客戶現在買到的房,而是我倆看房的「足跡」之一。

2018年1月矽谷房市行情報告

今天(2/2)寫稿日股票稍有修正,股市這幾年歷經的漲勢不斷,稍有修正不也是好事一樁?

股票回檔,房市呢,我們處在全美最熱的房市區,還不見任何跌勢,如果股市真的大幅下修,也許價格還會有回穩的可能,若要見到下跌,可能短期內不容易。

2018年1月是offer寫到手軟,整個月是漲得又驚又快,不然就等著從別人的成交價往上加價。今年開始我的粉絲頁 會有我當周我跟同事下offer的最新成交狀況匯報,如果能及時掌握行情,對於周邊下次出價會更有幫助。

在這個賣方市場的時代,屋況差、長黴長菇、地基有問題的房子都還是一堆人投標,更不用說裝修完畢或是屋齡較新的房子了,offer數破表、加價率直飆、沒有超過comps 5%以上是肯定拿不到房子的,也因此買房投標之前買家更要謹慎,算好手上現金多寡,才能不讓保證金被扣走。

最近常跟客戶說,真的很抱歉,最近買房無法幫你省錢,而且保證會買在歷史高點,但是沒有人知道何時是最高點。必須要請你做出選擇,因為買與不買、要不要留在這一個城市,每個人都有不同的人生規劃跟方向。但是當您下定決心要在這裡買房,我是全職經紀人,必能為你全力以赴。

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一月幫客人搶到房子的客人感謝信,買到房子真的很難,買到好deal更難,謝謝客戶的肯定。

 

 

 

 

來看看2018年1月加價率與成交所需天數,1月數據代表著2017年12月的行情跟買氣。看2017年2月到2018年1月的數據,更能完整看出2017年一整年房市走勢,加價率一路攀升、去化日期一路減少,買氣依然維持高檔水位,在矽谷買房,難度繼續升高。

以下圖示折線為加價率,長條圖為房子上市到銷售所需時間。

 

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is '19 - Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 900 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘ Sunnyvale’. Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 900 listings

 

C
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘Cupertino‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

 

M
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 550 listings

 

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is 'Los Altos' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 370 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is ‘Los Altos’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 370 listings

 

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is 'Campbell' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 480 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is ‘Campbell’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 480 listings

 

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is '5 - Berryessa' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is – Berryessa‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 820 listings

AV
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘ Almaden Valley‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 400 listings

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is '3 - Evergreen' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 810 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘ Evergreen’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 810 listings

CB
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘ Cambrian’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 860 listings

 

我是 National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。

如果您有任何買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話 408-505-3003
  • 電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • 微訊:maggiechien002
  • LINE:chienmingwei
  • FB粉絲專頁:Maggie Chien-Realtor

在矽谷、聖荷西、舊金山租屋

最近是租屋旺季,在北加州的經紀人,多半是專職買賣,租賃比較少,如果您有意願租屋,可以打電話408-505-3003 問我有沒有合適房源

如果我手上的房源不適合你,我提供以下資訊供您參考,您可以自己找房。

(一)租屋網站

https://www.zillow.com/sunnyvale-ca/rentals/
http://www.bay123.com/forum-40-1.html
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/  (詐騙超多 務必小心)
https://www.trulia.com/rent/
FB group:灣區生活互助會、湾区租房-找室友总群、湾区买房卖房租房自由版

決定租屋之前
第一:請先上網查詢附近治安報告Crime Rate
第二:也要查一左右鄰居有沒有 Sex offender information
第三:晚上一定要到社區周圍繞一繞,因為你晚上留在家時間其實更長,確認沒有讓人驚喜的鄰居再決定要不要租。
第四:學區查詢 http://www.schoolandhousing.com/ 這個網站90%準確,可以再到各個學區網站確認學校分區。

屋主或管理者多會要求
一、信用報告、信用分數
如果您有意願租屋,應該先填寫租屋申請表格(屋主或房屋經理人會提供),他們一定會要求$25~40元不等的支票要求調查您的信用,這一切都是合法的。如果被調查信用,也會影響信用分數,需要謹慎。

二、必要時需要提供存款證明
如果在美國沒有金融往來紀錄、信用分數,此時可以提供存款證明,或是告知願意提高一點點押金或是先預繳一點租金,表明出租意願與誠信。

三、押金到底要繳多少呢?
請注意!加州租屋最高押金一般收取1個月,若有附上家具押金最高會收取2個月。

簽訂合約時才需要繳押金,如果租金明顯低於行情且不看任何資料卻先要求支付訂金跟看證件一定是詐騙,不能帶你親自看房的也一定是詐騙,哪有人要租房不帶看的,千萬小心。

祝福大家都能在矽谷安居。

The API: 10 things parents should know

前兩天一個Cupertino 搬走的媽媽語重心長地告訴我

「我要是重新再選擇一次,我不會讓我孩子去念Monta Vista ,Pidmont High也很好啊,我兒子在MV只是前20%,他沒有高中生活,一直在念書,如果到競爭少一點點的學校,他會不會比較快樂我無法確定,但是他排名一定會很前面,史丹佛只要全校的第一名,在名校的孩子,實在很可憐...」

API分數常常是有孩子的家庭購買房子的參考指標,去年10月開始,Redfin重新調整學區分數,許多API落後的學校,突然變成9分10分,不管如何,API分數真的是百分之百的指標嗎? 你的孩子一定要爭破頭搶好學校嗎?

這裡有篇來自greatschools.org的文章,提供大家參考,讓你對所謂的API 分數有進一步的了解

1. The API is not a test.

Rather, the API is a school performance measurement system that was first developed as part of California’s 1999 Public Schools Accountability Act. Each year, the state calculates the Base API for each school to establish a baseline for the school’s academic performance, and it sets an annual target for growth. Each summer, the state announces the Growth API for each school, which reflects growth in the API from year to year.

The 2011 Base API, released in May 2012, is calculated using each school’s test results from the California Standards Tests (CSTs — state tests designed to see how students are learning state standards), the California Modified Assessment (CMA), the California Alternate Performance Assessment (CAPA) and the California High School Exit Examination (CAHSEE).

The 2012 Growth API, which will be released in September 2012, shows the school’s academic growth for the year. It is calculated in the same way as the 2011 Base API.

2. The API measures both school performance and improvement.

The API can be used to see how well a school did on tests in any given year, as well as to track school progress over time. Each year, parents can review a school’s API number, which shows how well it did relative to the state’s goal of 800, and also check the school’s growth from the previous year. To make it an accurate measure of school improvement, the Base API calculation only includes test results of students who were in the district during the previous school year. The Growth API is calculated using results of students from the current school year.

3. The API has very high stakes.

Due to the spotlight on API results from newspapers and the state, schools are under tremendous pressure to increase test scores and improve their APIs. While some argue that this pressure encourages schools to improve classroom instruction, others are afraid that schools will shortchange rich curricular programs in favor of test preparation drills.

4. The API measures academic performance, not school quality.

As a parent, you may have heard people say things like, “The school has an API of 750, so it must be a great school,” or “The API is only 550? What’s wrong with this school?” While these simple assessments are tempting, be careful about jumping to conclusions based on a school’s API alone. Before making any overall judgments about a school’s quality, be sure to look at its API improvement as well as other key factors, including teacher experience, parent involvement and special programs.

5. The API focuses on achievement for all students.

The API is designed to show how well schools are serving students across all ethnic and socioeconomic groups. For this reason, separate APIs are calculated for each of a school’s statistically significant subgroups, which include any ethnic groups that account for a significant percentage of the school’s population. If “numerically significant,” APIs are also calculated for a school’s socioeconomically disadvantaged students (students who qualify for the subsidized lunch program or who don’t have a parent with a high school degree), English learners, and students with disabilities.

6. Schools that don’t improve their APIs must get help.

If a school doesn’t meet its API growth target and has one of the lower Base APIs in the state, it may receive grants and special assistance to help with improvement efforts. If a school continues to fall short of its target, it may eventually be subject to strong local or state sanctions, including reassigning the principal (subject to a public hearing), reorganization or even school closure.

7. API results are for schools and districts only.

There is no such thing as an individual student API. The API is based on scores from the CSTs, the CMA, the CAPA and the CAHSEE. The API measures how a school’s or district’s academic performance improves from year to year.

8. The API has changed.

It used to include just the results of the norm-referenced tests — in the first years, the Stanford 9 tests and later the CAT/6. These tests compared California students to their peers nationwide. In recent years the emphasis has shifted to include more results from the CSTs, which more accurately reflect what California students are expected to learn in the classroom, and fewer results from the CAT/6. In early 2009, the CAT/6 Survey was eliminated entirely as a testing tool in the state.

In 2001-2002, CSTs in English language arts (for grades 2 through 11) were added to API calculations. Scores from CSTs in math (for grades 2 through 11), social science (for grades 10 and 11), and the CAHSEE were added in 2002-2003 to provide a more accurate picture of what students have learned. In 2003-2004, CST science tests in grades 9 through 11 and the CAPA in language and math in grades 2 through 11 were added. Since 2004-2005 even more indicators have been added. The API now includes the CST in science for grades 5 and 8 through 11 and in history-social science for grades 8 through 11. In 2008, the California Modified Assessment (CMA) was added to the API for grades 3 through 5. Grades 6 through 8 of the CMA were added in 2010.

9. The API is complicated.

If the whole topic of the API confuses you, you’re not alone. Educators and parents alike struggle to understand where the API comes from, how it’s calculated and what exactly it means. Here’s the bottom line: APIs range from 200 to 1000 and the goal for all schools is 800. The API is based on test scores and is calculated in a way that encourages schools to raise the test scores of the lowest-scoring students.

10. GreatSchools Ratings and the California API are different.

GreatSchools also calculates a rating on a scale of 1 to 10 based on California test results. There are several important differences between GreatSchools Ratings and California API Ranks:

  • API Ranks are created by the California Department of Education. GreatSchools Ratings are created by GreatSchools.
  • The API is calculated using results from the CSTs, CMA, CAHSEE, and the CAPA. GreatSchools Ratings are calculated using the CSTs only. For additional information on GreatSchools Ratings, check our frequently asked questions.
  • Some test subjects count more than others in the API.
  • The API includes all 5 levels of proficiency (far below basic, below basic, basic, proficient or advanced), each receiving a different number of points toward the total API. The API is calculated this way to encourage improvement in test scores. GreatSchools Ratings use only the percent of students who scored at the proficient and advanced levels. GreatSchools Ratings show how the percentage of students on grade level at a school compared to schools across the state.

 

 

2016年3月最新市況,依然「搶得兇狠」

上個月,我們面臨了房子一開價就跳漲10%的日子,這個月,大家仍在搶房子的日子中度過。

供給少於實際需求,於是價格還是繼續走揚,今年因為房價已經高漲,加價率不如去年,許多人出價的時候態度變得謹慎,不過,如果出價太過謹慎,就會聽見「心碎的聲音」,這是我客人實際經歷出價時所開的玩笑。

現在想賣屋的屋主都很精,網路上隨便一查都知道行情,如果不是屋況特差、Location不好,不加個10~15%是進不到第二輪的Counter offer門檻的。除了第二輪 Counter offer,如果屋主需要錢,家裡孩子高中畢業要賣房,可能還需要Final Counter Offer 大決戰,若沒有一鼓作氣,可能就會與心中的Dream house擦身而過,這是我最近幫客人搶房子的心得。

廢話不多說,來看看平均加價率變化曲線,還是 Sunnyvale加價率最高,往南而遞減,到Evergreen稍稍緩息。

 

 

SU201603
Sunnyvale Mar 2015 to Feb 2016

 

 

SU price
Sunnyvale Sale Prices 平均House成交價逐年升高

 

Santa Clara 201603
Santa Clara 201603 加價率繼續攀升

 

Berryessa 201603
Berryessa Mar 2015 to Feb 2016

 

Evergreen
Mar 2015 to Feb 2016 Evergreen

 

Campbell
Campbell

矽谷不動產2016年走勢「量縮價穩」

親愛的朋友久等了,我在亞洲的旅程已經結束

2/8號晚上就回到矽谷

這期間搶房還是搶得兇,不少網友與客戶問我,最近房源怎麼這麼少,怎麼會這樣,發生什麼事?

不要恐慌,讓我們一起找答案。其實市場反應出來的,就是最簡單的「供需原則」罷了!

讓我們先來看看數據,觀察了一下,呼應之前過完年房市就回溫的結果,2016年的房市依然如此。

2015年的冬天雖屬淡季,但是房屋供給量少,需求量大,價格卻依然持穩,甚至維持上揚,成交天數雖然出現微幅上揚,但是Sunnyvale, Berryessa, Evergreen以及South SJ, Blossom Valley等等的加價率卻在11月、12月落底之後彈升。

我抓了這些地區,讓我們一起來看看MLS最新數據報告

CU all
Cupertino 201601 加價率持平,成交天數多了一天

 

SU
Sunnyvale 我只抓了Single Family  201601 加價率回彈,成交天數微幅上揚

 

Berryessa
Berryessa價錢也有回彈趨勢,看來又是個上升的跡象

 

Evergreen
就連Evergreen也是出現加價率回彈的情形

 

South SJ
也許矽谷的樣本數不夠,那我們來看看樣本數更多的Blossom Valley, South San Jose, Willow Glen,價格一樣在11月落底之後彈升。

接下來回答客戶與網友的問題!最近房子怎麼那麼少?

我可以大膽的說,原因是「搶得快!」&「中國人過年」兩大因素

房地產購買需求依然未減,雖然矽谷裁員聲四起,股票持續地下滑,但是保值性產品像是黃金已經出現漲幅,保值度更佳且有穩定租金的的矽谷不動產,在我看來2016年依然是大有可為,釋出量少,但是房價至少能在穩定中求發展,呈現量縮價穩格局。

以上報告,為MLS數據與個人10年房地產經驗的意見與觀察。

若有購屋或資產重新分配需求,歡迎透過下列方式與我聯繫,

Mingwei Business card

wechat:maggiechien002

 

祝大家猴年行大運、新年快樂