2017 5月矽谷房市行情報告

MLS五月最新成交行情出爐,反映了今年四月的買氣。 今年股債雙漲的背景之下,資金充盈,矽谷的房市平均房價也再創新高,此外加價率依然持續上揚,南灣唯獨Berryessa出現不到1%的加價率跌幅,多數主要城市的銷售所需日期依然繼續降低。

目前的經濟局勢依然樂觀,美股漲幅屢創新高,既然漲勢已高,未來漲幅就會縮小,不過身在矽谷,總能第一線感受到科技業的局勢,最近幫客人招租,地點位於Sunnyvale、Santa Clara等矽谷中心位置的區域,投出租約申請的,多是剛拿到offer工作的應屆畢業生,矽谷人文薈萃,科技業的榮景依然未歇。

最近客人或甚至找別人買房的網友,還是一直問我:「房子聽說十年一場大跌幅,灣區房子是不是要跌了?」 我每一個月都會有人問我這個問題,我今年的看法維持一致,今年看不到跌勢,明年我還料不準,真的很抱歉,我不是神仙。

舉幾個例子吧! 這個月有幾間Sunnyvale 2b/2b 開價75萬元左右的town house,都送出了40分左右的disclosure,加價率超過15%。上周我幫客人下了一間Los Altos High的大房,經過擴建跟整修,開價300萬元,加價率超過30%。 Sunnyvale 北側94089 3B2.5B的Town house最高價已經賣破140萬元,Sunnyvale 94087學區房,每一呎都已經站穩$1200。

今年雨季長,銷售熱季來的晚,就算已經六月,在美股指數來到新高的背景下,矽谷房地產市場依然信心十足,市場未見降溫,如果你想買房,此刻依然要有奮力一搏的準備。

當然這個經濟市場不是沒有隱憂

第一、指數、房市已高,獲利也許有賣壓。

第二、政經動盪,川普的政策與股債雙漲的隱憂

第三、七月、八月是傳統淡季,銷售量可能會影響價格?

第四、聯準會升息

第五、大型天災像是大地震

上述情形若同時發生了兩到三個,也許房價漲幅會稍有止歇。

以下看看五月的加價率與銷售天數,加價率創新高、銷售所需日期多數城市繼續降低

Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is 'Menlo Park' Property Type is 'Residential' Results calculated from approximately 380 listings
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Menlo Park’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 380 listings
SU 201706
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 870 listings
CU
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 340 listings
PA
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 450 listings
LA
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Los Altos’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 360 listings
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Results calculated from approximately 890 listings
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 890 listings
CB
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Campbell’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 460 listings
B
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 790 listings
E
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Area Name is ‘3 – Evergreen’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 810 listings

再次說明,我是房地產經紀,是幫助你合理出價買到房子,協助你把房子賣在高點,絕對不是要炒高房地產市場,我天天看房子,適時地將市場現況記錄下來,如果您有買賣房屋需求、出租房管理,或任何關於矽谷房地產資訊

歡迎利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房

    • 電話 408-505-3003
    • FB/電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
    • 微訊:maggiechien002
    • LINE:chienmingwei
    • FB粉絲專頁:Maggie Chien-Realtor

FAQ 【為什麼我的agent不幫我下offer?】

【為什麼我的agent不幫我下offer?】
前一陣子在一個論壇看到這項問題,回答問題的人,大概有一半都說:「換掉他」、「換一個人」。
如果在灣區,應該更多人有這項疑問。
目前來說,買房要加價是不爭的事實,如果是正常開價,今年開春以來,加價率10~15%算是均數,如果交通便捷、學區也佳,投標數通常在兩位數之上,加價率也往往超過20%。
那為什麼agent不幫你投標?
因為價格太低了?或是contingency太多了?還有…
這裡沒有歧視的意思,請耐心聽我把話說完。
通常一個買方經紀人在投標之前,都會問清楚disclosure發出去的數量、大概會有幾個人下offer。我通常也會去看看周末open house的來人數,觀察一下多少agent帶看過房子,會知道這房子在市場上有多熱門,當然會精確地做出估價/ 周邊房價成交報告,這些都會影響到出價與加價數。
如果你想出的offer低於行情太多,或是不想加價,甚至是放數個contingencies,基本上得標率超低,甚至0,經紀人當然就不想花太多你跟他與的時間跟精力了。
經紀人不是現實,只是現在的市場上,依然是買家數遠超過於庫存量,我們真的沒有那種好運氣,可以低價買到。
如果你的經紀人不出價,還有一個很重要的理由,就是不想讓買方被賣方討厭。
不管是不是listing price過高,不想加價、或甚至想殺價,也不要第一時間就傻傻遞出一個offer,因為賣方一定會產生不好印象,後續就算買方願意加價,賣方也不見得會考慮。
大家既然雇用了買方經紀人,就是要維護買方的權益,我相信你的經紀人不是不想努力,經紀人肯定比你更想買到房子,如果他不出offer,一定有他的理由,請信任經紀人的專業考量,雙方多多溝通,才能盡速買到好房子。

The API: 10 things parents should know

前兩天一個Cupertino 搬走的媽媽語重心長地告訴我

「我要是重新再選擇一次,我不會讓我孩子去念Monta Vista ,Pidmont High也很好啊,我兒子在MV只是前20%,他沒有高中生活,一直在念書,如果到競爭少一點點的學校,他會不會比較快樂我無法確定,但是他排名一定會很前面,史丹佛只要全校的第一名,在名校的孩子,實在很可憐...」

API分數常常是有孩子的家庭購買房子的參考指標,去年10月開始,Redfin重新調整學區分數,許多API落後的學校,突然變成9分10分,不管如何,API分數真的是百分之百的指標嗎? 你的孩子一定要爭破頭搶好學校嗎?

這裡有篇來自greatschools.org的文章,提供大家參考,讓你對所謂的API 分數有進一步的了解

1. The API is not a test.

Rather, the API is a school performance measurement system that was first developed as part of California’s 1999 Public Schools Accountability Act. Each year, the state calculates the Base API for each school to establish a baseline for the school’s academic performance, and it sets an annual target for growth. Each summer, the state announces the Growth API for each school, which reflects growth in the API from year to year.

The 2011 Base API, released in May 2012, is calculated using each school’s test results from the California Standards Tests (CSTs — state tests designed to see how students are learning state standards), the California Modified Assessment (CMA), the California Alternate Performance Assessment (CAPA) and the California High School Exit Examination (CAHSEE).

The 2012 Growth API, which will be released in September 2012, shows the school’s academic growth for the year. It is calculated in the same way as the 2011 Base API.

2. The API measures both school performance and improvement.

The API can be used to see how well a school did on tests in any given year, as well as to track school progress over time. Each year, parents can review a school’s API number, which shows how well it did relative to the state’s goal of 800, and also check the school’s growth from the previous year. To make it an accurate measure of school improvement, the Base API calculation only includes test results of students who were in the district during the previous school year. The Growth API is calculated using results of students from the current school year.

3. The API has very high stakes.

Due to the spotlight on API results from newspapers and the state, schools are under tremendous pressure to increase test scores and improve their APIs. While some argue that this pressure encourages schools to improve classroom instruction, others are afraid that schools will shortchange rich curricular programs in favor of test preparation drills.

4. The API measures academic performance, not school quality.

As a parent, you may have heard people say things like, “The school has an API of 750, so it must be a great school,” or “The API is only 550? What’s wrong with this school?” While these simple assessments are tempting, be careful about jumping to conclusions based on a school’s API alone. Before making any overall judgments about a school’s quality, be sure to look at its API improvement as well as other key factors, including teacher experience, parent involvement and special programs.

5. The API focuses on achievement for all students.

The API is designed to show how well schools are serving students across all ethnic and socioeconomic groups. For this reason, separate APIs are calculated for each of a school’s statistically significant subgroups, which include any ethnic groups that account for a significant percentage of the school’s population. If “numerically significant,” APIs are also calculated for a school’s socioeconomically disadvantaged students (students who qualify for the subsidized lunch program or who don’t have a parent with a high school degree), English learners, and students with disabilities.

6. Schools that don’t improve their APIs must get help.

If a school doesn’t meet its API growth target and has one of the lower Base APIs in the state, it may receive grants and special assistance to help with improvement efforts. If a school continues to fall short of its target, it may eventually be subject to strong local or state sanctions, including reassigning the principal (subject to a public hearing), reorganization or even school closure.

7. API results are for schools and districts only.

There is no such thing as an individual student API. The API is based on scores from the CSTs, the CMA, the CAPA and the CAHSEE. The API measures how a school’s or district’s academic performance improves from year to year.

8. The API has changed.

It used to include just the results of the norm-referenced tests — in the first years, the Stanford 9 tests and later the CAT/6. These tests compared California students to their peers nationwide. In recent years the emphasis has shifted to include more results from the CSTs, which more accurately reflect what California students are expected to learn in the classroom, and fewer results from the CAT/6. In early 2009, the CAT/6 Survey was eliminated entirely as a testing tool in the state.

In 2001-2002, CSTs in English language arts (for grades 2 through 11) were added to API calculations. Scores from CSTs in math (for grades 2 through 11), social science (for grades 10 and 11), and the CAHSEE were added in 2002-2003 to provide a more accurate picture of what students have learned. In 2003-2004, CST science tests in grades 9 through 11 and the CAPA in language and math in grades 2 through 11 were added. Since 2004-2005 even more indicators have been added. The API now includes the CST in science for grades 5 and 8 through 11 and in history-social science for grades 8 through 11. In 2008, the California Modified Assessment (CMA) was added to the API for grades 3 through 5. Grades 6 through 8 of the CMA were added in 2010.

9. The API is complicated.

If the whole topic of the API confuses you, you’re not alone. Educators and parents alike struggle to understand where the API comes from, how it’s calculated and what exactly it means. Here’s the bottom line: APIs range from 200 to 1000 and the goal for all schools is 800. The API is based on test scores and is calculated in a way that encourages schools to raise the test scores of the lowest-scoring students.

10. GreatSchools Ratings and the California API are different.

GreatSchools also calculates a rating on a scale of 1 to 10 based on California test results. There are several important differences between GreatSchools Ratings and California API Ranks:

  • API Ranks are created by the California Department of Education. GreatSchools Ratings are created by GreatSchools.
  • The API is calculated using results from the CSTs, CMA, CAHSEE, and the CAPA. GreatSchools Ratings are calculated using the CSTs only. For additional information on GreatSchools Ratings, check our frequently asked questions.
  • Some test subjects count more than others in the API.
  • The API includes all 5 levels of proficiency (far below basic, below basic, basic, proficient or advanced), each receiving a different number of points toward the total API. The API is calculated this way to encourage improvement in test scores. GreatSchools Ratings use only the percent of students who scored at the proficient and advanced levels. GreatSchools Ratings show how the percentage of students on grade level at a school compared to schools across the state.

 

 

2016年3月最新市況,依然「搶得兇狠」

上個月,我們面臨了房子一開價就跳漲10%的日子,這個月,大家仍在搶房子的日子中度過。

供給少於實際需求,於是價格還是繼續走揚,今年因為房價已經高漲,加價率不如去年,許多人出價的時候態度變得謹慎,不過,如果出價太過謹慎,就會聽見「心碎的聲音」,這是我客人實際經歷出價時所開的玩笑。

現在想賣屋的屋主都很精,網路上隨便一查都知道行情,如果不是屋況特差、Location不好,不加個10~15%是進不到第二輪的Counter offer門檻的。除了第二輪 Counter offer,如果屋主需要錢,家裡孩子高中畢業要賣房,可能還需要Final Counter Offer 大決戰,若沒有一鼓作氣,可能就會與心中的Dream house擦身而過,這是我最近幫客人搶房子的心得。

廢話不多說,來看看平均加價率變化曲線,還是 Sunnyvale加價率最高,往南而遞減,到Evergreen稍稍緩息。

 

 

SU201603
Sunnyvale Mar 2015 to Feb 2016

 

 

SU price
Sunnyvale Sale Prices 平均House成交價逐年升高

 

Santa Clara 201603
Santa Clara 201603 加價率繼續攀升

 

Berryessa 201603
Berryessa Mar 2015 to Feb 2016

 

Evergreen
Mar 2015 to Feb 2016 Evergreen

 

Campbell
Campbell

矽谷不動產2016年走勢「量縮價穩」

親愛的朋友久等了,我在亞洲的旅程已經結束

2/8號晚上就回到矽谷

這期間搶房還是搶得兇,不少網友與客戶問我,最近房源怎麼這麼少,怎麼會這樣,發生什麼事?

不要恐慌,讓我們一起找答案。其實市場反應出來的,就是最簡單的「供需原則」罷了!

讓我們先來看看數據,觀察了一下,呼應之前過完年房市就回溫的結果,2016年的房市依然如此。

2015年的冬天雖屬淡季,但是房屋供給量少,需求量大,價格卻依然持穩,甚至維持上揚,成交天數雖然出現微幅上揚,但是Sunnyvale, Berryessa, Evergreen以及South SJ, Blossom Valley等等的加價率卻在11月、12月落底之後彈升。

我抓了這些地區,讓我們一起來看看MLS最新數據報告

CU all
Cupertino 201601 加價率持平,成交天數多了一天

 

SU
Sunnyvale 我只抓了Single Family  201601 加價率回彈,成交天數微幅上揚

 

Berryessa
Berryessa價錢也有回彈趨勢,看來又是個上升的跡象

 

Evergreen
就連Evergreen也是出現加價率回彈的情形

 

South SJ
也許矽谷的樣本數不夠,那我們來看看樣本數更多的Blossom Valley, South San Jose, Willow Glen,價格一樣在11月落底之後彈升。

接下來回答客戶與網友的問題!最近房子怎麼那麼少?

我可以大膽的說,原因是「搶得快!」&「中國人過年」兩大因素

房地產購買需求依然未減,雖然矽谷裁員聲四起,股票持續地下滑,但是保值性產品像是黃金已經出現漲幅,保值度更佳且有穩定租金的的矽谷不動產,在我看來2016年依然是大有可為,釋出量少,但是房價至少能在穩定中求發展,呈現量縮價穩格局。

以上報告,為MLS數據與個人10年房地產經驗的意見與觀察。

若有購屋或資產重新分配需求,歡迎透過下列方式與我聯繫,

Mingwei Business card

wechat:maggiechien002

 

祝大家猴年行大運、新年快樂

 

 

 

 

18歲以下孩子可以持有房產嗎?

我的客人問我,大陸小孩子年紀輕輕自己就一套房,美國可以嗎?

答案是不行的。

美國聯邦法認定18歲以下尚未有法定行為能力(legal capacity)

但是有例外,除非從軍、經法院宣判合法結婚能買賣不動產 簽訂契約之外 (通常叫作 婚姻成年制 或 法定成年制 Emancipated ) 其餘有非常嚴格之規定,以下在BOE有詳細說明,請參考。

http://www.boe.ca.gov/lawguides/property/current/ptlg/annt/493-0000-all.html

[Quote]
493.0020 Custodianship.
Under California law, a minor may own real property or an interest therein, but a minor may not convey or make contracts relating to real property. Since a minor cannot sell or purchase property held directly in his or her own name, transactions involving a minor’s interests in real property are usually conducted indirectly through a guardianship or trust. The California Uniform Transfers to Minors Act (CUTMA) provides a statutory mechanism for transferring property to an adult “custodian” for the benefit of a minor. A CUTMA custodian holds, controls, manages, and invests the custodial property. When the custodianship terminates, title to the custodial property is transferred to the minor or the minor’s estate.

When property is transferred to a minor’s custodian under the CUTMA, a minor has beneficial ownership of the property, and the custodian only has legal title with powers and limitations similar to that of a trustee. Therefore, for property tax purposes, an assessor should treat a CUTMA custodianship in the same manner as a trust and “look through” to identify the transferor and the present beneficiary. A CUTMA custodian is not considered the beneficial owner.

Thus, there is no exclusion from change in ownership for a transfer of real property from a grandmother to her daughter as a custodian for her grandson under the CUTMA. Such a transfer is considered a transfer from a grandmother to the grandson, and not from the grandmother to the daughter that qualifies for the parent-child exclusion. Neither is the grandparent-grandchild exclusion available since the mother of the grandchild is still living. C 9/14/2007.
[End Quote]

 

 

舊金山灣區 南灣 房地產 201510月最新數據報告

Here is the latest market analysis by Maggie Chien.  I just finished house market research about South bay, part of east bay and also Berryessa.  Time frame is from Oct 2014 to Sep 2015.  Postal City is Palo alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Fremont, Milpitas, Berryessa.  Property Type is Residential.  Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Town house’.

為各位奉上十月初最新的市場資訊,先來看看

Los Gatos/Monte Sereno & Saratoga 的市況變化

L & S 201509

交易天數減少、加價率微服增加0.3%,但是基本上Los Gatos/Monte Sereno & Saratoga這兩區域

售價接近開價,成交天數仍在一個月以上!

CupertinoTime frame is from Oct 2014 to Sep 2015 Area Name is '18 - Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 620 listingsCupertino平均成交天數仍維持在19天,加價率從108.3%降至105.4%

Sunnyvale

SV 201509

Sunnyvale 近期市況相較Cupertino更佳,

成交天數 減少一天,市場熱度未減,微加價率微幅跌落從109.1%跌至107.9%,顯示房價仍在高檔盤旋,未見跌價趨勢

主因應是Cupertino房價過高,排擠效應讓不少家庭寧願往外退,畢竟94087, 94086等部分Sunnyvale仍有好學區環境

Berryessa

BE 201509

 數據真有趣!Berryessa的房價曲線與高房價區出現明顯差異

加價率不減反升,從105.2% 上升至106.1%,幫客戶找房子的時候,我也可以明顯感受到Berryessa地區的「熱度」所在!

最近我有客人在看South San Jose的房子,我也跑了一個Single family only的數據供參考

SSJ

South San Jose成交量少,數據參考值較低,

唯數據可明顯看出成交量與購買力在此區是很低的,房市不熱門,學區分數低,就會影響未來轉手力。

Cupertino X Sunnyvale 近五年哪裡漲得多?

你知道Cupertino X Sunnyvale這五年房價哪裡漲得多嗎? 猜猜看!

這份數據是客戶問了我一個問題,本著前財經記者的使命,我在MLS找了數據研究一下。

我只針對Single Family 跑了數據

這是Cupertino近五年Single Family房價走勢圖示↓

Cupertino house

另外抓了2010年到2015年每一個月的平均成交數據

2010當年均價$1,052,496  2015年1月至9月均價為 $1,791,901 上漲幅度70.25%

這是Sunnyvale近五年Single Family房價走勢圖示↓

SU house

SUNNYVALE  Single Family房價

2010年當年平均房價為$745,782,2015年1月至9月平均房價為$1,351,753,漲幅為81.25%

你猜對了嗎?

股票跌了,灣區(矽谷)房價會跌嗎?

近期房價高漲,影響了換屋意願;租金高漲,影響售屋意願,想賣房子的人實在少數,導致價格依然在高處盤整。矽谷人捧著錢卻買不到好房子,因為市場上釋出量更是越來越少,另外,八月我們經歷了股災,有些人根本不想在此刻銷售房產,希望股市盤整之後再上市。

股災不只波及賣家,也已經影響到以股票、共同基金(Mutual funds)存頭期款的買家,大跌後續雖有大漲,但是道瓊指數在近1個月跌了7.08% 卻是事實,不少買家多多少少都有些影響,特別是在信心層面。

近半年道瓊指數下跌了9.65%,灣區房價還是屹立不搖,很多人以為可以殺價買房,卻眼睜睜看著房子被搶走,套一句我客人說的話,「有錢就任性嗎?」,我想是不動產(Real Estate)在經濟最動盪的時候,產生了它的價值所在。

而股市影響房市的期間往往長達一年之後,我們拿最近2007年8月開始爆發的次貸風暴、2008年9月發生的雷曼兄弟事件造成的全球金融局勢影響來看,道瓊指數動盪直到2009年3月正式落底,當時指數為6547點,請見下圖。Dow Jones Industrial Average

灣區房價真正落底則是2011年,請見下圖,之後房價扶搖直上

Bay area 近30年平均房價走勢
Bay area 近30年平均房價走勢

很多人最關心,房價會跌嗎?沒有人知道,就跟股票的新聞都是放馬後炮一樣,沒有人說得準,我也問了灣區前輩,上週跟灣區有名的房地產證照老師童老師聊天,他說:「只要是自住、慎選地點,就算跌了也跌幅不大,過了幾年肯定又漲回來,30年前Sunnyvale一棟房子才8萬元,現在都是百萬元。」,我的老闆 Randy也很常說:「錢只會越來越薄啦…..」。

我永遠會提醒買家們,沒有永遠漲不歇的房價跟股市,很難算的準「何時會漲?何時會跌?」

只要你有實際住屋需求,就是最佳買點,但是務必掌握好家庭經濟狀況!!

請在買房之前計算每月支出概算,包括房貸數據、保險、稅金等,如果是投資者,應該算一下房貸金額、保險、稅金、租金投報率等,做好財務規劃,至少預留半年到一年的房貸、保險、稅金等周轉金,才挺得過經濟的高低起伏,享受到投資、存錢在房子上的美妙果實。別忘了,這裡是美國,舒適卻現實的美國,請務必當心。

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