過去一年來,矽谷房市怎了?

註:10/17 再次更新,文末補上MLS 發布2019/9月與8月、2019 9月與去年同期比較數據

好幾個月沒有發行情報告,主因還是市場有點紛亂,並沒有明確的方向,所以不具參考指標。拉長期一點看,才會明顯感受也確立市場真的是跌價了,平均來說,成交中價位數減低、銷售量減少、新上市與銷售比例降低 (上市的多、真正賣掉的不多)。

以下兩張是加州地產協會的平均數據,目前只更新到八月,再下方的MLS數據才有到九月份的,我會一一解釋。

根據地產協會最新發布的數據,2019年8月Santa Clara County的房子(在此僅限Single Family) 要18天才會收到offer,38.2%上市的房子要降價求售,開價就是賣價 (這是平均值,在市場上買房子還是要參照周邊行情),中位數房價119萬美金,相較去年同期減少8.1%;市場上有一千三百多套房子在賣,相較去年同期多了6.1%, 共有875間賣掉;相較去年同期減少6.9%。

而根據MLS (Multiple Listing Service 經紀人專用平台)最新數據,2018第四季、2019第三季,平均來說100間房子正在銷售的房子大概只有51%順利售出,已經是近4年最低。

相較於2017年第一季到2018第二季都有超過65%甚至高達76%的Listing 售出甚遠。

過去一年Santa Clara Number of Homes For Sale vs Sold 
(銷售中的房子與售出房子逐月比例)
Time frame is from Oct 2018 to Sep 2019
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 20,000 listings
過去一年Santa Clara Number of New Listings vs Sold 
(新上市的房子與售出房子逐月比例)
Time frame is from Oct 2018 to Sep 2019
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 19,000 listings

降價求售的比例數據在2018年10月達到最高峰後,2019年從2月到8月也不斷攀升,超過20%的Listing會降價求售。

Santa Clara County過去一年銷售平均所需天數與加價率
Time frame is from Oct 2018 to Sep 2019
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 13,000 listings

看到這裡你應該會覺得奇怪,剛剛加州地產協會八月不是說要18天就賣掉嗎?加州地產協會數據只有抓Detached Single family,我則是選擇抓Single family, condo, townhouse。

過去一年Santa Clara 銷售價格中位數
(Sale Prices Over Time, Median)
Time frame is from Nov 2018 to Oct 2019
County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from 12,359 listings

2019的市場還有幾點特殊現象可以跟大家分享

第一、Flipper減少了,Flipper占買家比例從2014 30%, 2015 26%, 2016 20%, 2017 24%, 2018 26%, 目前2019年僅有18%。 ( 可喜可賀 )

第二、賣房子住養老院還是市場上的大多數,大概有25%、大換小或搬到老人村者的年紀15%,其次才是換屋的中青年人,加起來12%。

第三、越來越多房屋持有者是賣了房子搬離加州,比例高達30%。上一次的高峰是2005年31%,2009只有19%,2015只有22%。

第四、All Cash Buyers減少了,達到10年來最低,僅19.7%。自2008年起就超過20%直到2012年逼近30%。

第五、 Listing Agent非常積極追買家,過去幾年賣房子非常容易,好賣、快賣、大賣,根本不用做什麼事就等offer上門,現在則是買方市場,反而是 Listing Agent 要來尋求Buyer agent合作,同時也會認真抓客人。

第六、買家有所保留,多轉為觀望心態,或希望在還是依然很貴的市場下撿點便宜。Open House來人數這一季相較於前半年增加不少,disclosure 也發出去不少,但是受到市場跌幅,下offer數減少了。

看完這些,你覺得市場很糟糕嗎? 其實也沒有!

市場還是有一些樂觀因素, 同時看看過去兩年在Santa Clara的失業率,僅有2.1%~3.1%之間,是歷史上最低,加上摘自Zillow Rental 的資料也顯示租金持續上升,2012~2019偶有修正卻持續上漲至新高點,顯示矽谷依然有大量且穩定的居住需求。

根據加州地產協會最新的2020分析報告,2010~2018 整個Bay Area新的工作機會有84萬5833個,新建房數只有18萬3111間,也能充分說明為什麼租金能不斷上揚,具有買房需求者依然眾多。

而充滿爭議性的數據,RHNA 區域房屋需求分配(Regional Housing Needs Allocation, RHNA)  顯示San Jose City依然有大量住房需求。

根據 Milken Institute’s Best-Performing Cities index  今年最新數據,矽谷 ( San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA )是十大表現最佳城市的第二名。舊金山( San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA MD)則為第四名。

利率依然維持低檔等等。

以下附上加州地產協會在9月26日發表的2020年加州地產分析與最新預測報告

抓了兩張2018實際房地產相關數據與2019 年的預測比較,以及針對2020的預測。

2018年實際數據相較於 2019年的預測與目前數據
加州地產協會針對2020年加州房地產相關數據的預測

加州地產協會在9月26日發表的最新預測報告,也給成員一些建議。

賣房子的時候要精準標價,用數據告訴你的客人而不要用個人意見

協助客人搬遷往來於你熟悉的區域

買方分享專業知識與正確的數據

利率應該會到達史上低點,告訴客戶們記得Refinance

賣房子的時候要把房子搞得跟HGTV節目中的一樣漂亮 (這點好好笑,不過淺顯易懂,我有專業工班跟多家Staging company合作喔!)

不斷強調數據數據數據!還好以上我都有一直做到 🙂

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題,或是買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

我是全職加州地產經理 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

買房故事分享- 價差18%

今日交了一間房,去年12月買到的客戶轉介的,去年下著雨看房的客戶撿便宜,(因為屋主剛生小孩啊)。今年這位客戶,也抱著一定要撿到便宜心態買房。 可能意念夠強吧,我們第三個offer買到了!

去年同社區、同房型、同尺寸成交價117萬,今年三月104萬,我們買99萬,屋主以前也是broker,同時是社區board成員,一直說這小區財務很穩定,他都監督且幫忙規畫好了。因為屋主年紀大了要退休, 打算從住了20幾年安安穩穩的房子搬到退休村,準備出售之前換過全新的橡木地板、全新地毯,質感很好,都是中上等級。

這個房子我們要下標之前先看過同社區另一間,通常一個社區有兩間以上在賣,有時候價格會比較好談。 第一間我們不想出太高,畢竟離高速公路還是有點近,晚上無法開窗,難免會有些許白噪音。

買到的這間房子照片拍得不吸引人,也沒做staging,本來客戶連看都不想看的😌。後來照片拍得漂亮的那間差了一點沒有買到,想說去看看這間不起眼的也好,沒想到屋主自住、屋況很好 (之前沒買到卻裝修漂亮的是投資房、出租用),建材質感很好,房子好乾淨,就連walk through時也是一塵不染,浴室玻璃都沒有水垢喔,報告上的幾個小缺點屋主也負責修好了。

相較去年最高點,跌了18% ,這個社區算多,現在市場上Townhouse& Condo的平均跌幅10~15%。

最近市場的確有越來越冷清的跡象,其實看房數很多,Cupertino兩百多萬房都有破百組客戶、San Jose 一般房子前兩周也有50組人看房,只是出offer數不踴躍。 (市場還是有例外,學區好、屋況好、價錢合理的還是有multiple offers,昨天同事就說Lynbrook 200萬房,有7個offer)

市面上放得比較久的房子,多數是學區不好或屋況差,也因此調價格的不少、價格不好的話有些屋主會選擇下市、不賣轉租也是賣家的另一個處理房產的方式。

賣家持有成本低,如果沒有非賣不可的原因,在市場上出租目前都還算容易。我在Campbrain 靠近Campbell代管的出租房,九月的時候要出租,前三個星期總共有近50組人想約看房,只是知道是半年租期之後,多數希望是一年以上租約而作罷。

天氣轉涼,這兩個星期上市的房子量也逐漸減少了,上市的房源有些蠻不吸引人的,房價會不會繼續跌呢?繼續觀察中。

2019年3月矽谷房市行情報告

先來貼一下各區域的 Average DOM & Sale to list price Ration

買氣跟氣溫一樣,已經逐漸回升,除了Open House 來人量,offer數相較於去年底到今年初,也明顯增加,從下列數據應該可以看出一點買氣回升的端倪。

不過市場還是沒有2017/2018的春天熱!

多數買家觀望心依舊,Disclosure送出去的多,收offer數大概是Disclosure的1/3,送offer還是不會太積極加價,但是幾個offer裡,總還是會有黑馬崛起的。市場正在發熱,我們繼續觀察後續發展。

Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is '18 - Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 540 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ’18 – Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 540 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ’19 – Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 890 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is '8 - Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ‘8 – Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 950 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ’14 – Cambrian’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 810 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is one of ’13 – Almaden Valley’, ’12 – Blossom Valley’, ’11 – South San Jose’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 1,900 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 780 listings
Time frame is from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019 Area Name is ‘6 – Milpitas’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

2017 5月矽谷房市行情報告

MLS五月最新成交行情出爐,反映了今年四月的買氣。 今年股債雙漲的背景之下,資金充盈,矽谷的房市平均房價也再創新高,此外加價率依然持續上揚,南灣唯獨Berryessa出現不到1%的加價率跌幅,多數主要城市的銷售所需日期依然繼續降低。

目前的經濟局勢依然樂觀,美股漲幅屢創新高,既然漲勢已高,未來漲幅就會縮小,不過身在矽谷,總能第一線感受到科技業的局勢,最近幫客人招租,地點位於Sunnyvale、Santa Clara等矽谷中心位置的區域,投出租約申請的,多是剛拿到offer工作的應屆畢業生,矽谷人文薈萃,科技業的榮景依然未歇。

最近客人或甚至找別人買房的網友,還是一直問我:「房子聽說十年一場大跌幅,灣區房子是不是要跌了?」 我每一個月都會有人問我這個問題,我今年的看法維持一致,今年看不到跌勢,明年我還料不準,真的很抱歉,我不是神仙。

舉幾個例子吧! 這個月有幾間Sunnyvale 2b/2b 開價75萬元左右的town house,都送出了40分左右的disclosure,加價率超過15%。上周我幫客人下了一間Los Altos High的大房,經過擴建跟整修,開價300萬元,加價率超過30%。 Sunnyvale 北側94089 3B2.5B的Town house最高價已經賣破140萬元,Sunnyvale 94087學區房,每一呎都已經站穩$1200。

今年雨季長,銷售熱季來的晚,就算已經六月,在美股指數來到新高的背景下,矽谷房地產市場依然信心十足,市場未見降溫,如果你想買房,此刻依然要有奮力一搏的準備。

當然這個經濟市場不是沒有隱憂

第一、指數、房市已高,獲利也許有賣壓。

第二、政經動盪,川普的政策與股債雙漲的隱憂

第三、七月、八月是傳統淡季,銷售量可能會影響價格?

第四、聯準會升息

第五、大型天災像是大地震

上述情形若同時發生了兩到三個,也許房價漲幅會稍有止歇。

以下看看五月的加價率與銷售天數,加價率創新高、銷售所需日期多數城市繼續降低

Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is 'Menlo Park' Property Type is 'Residential' Results calculated from approximately 380 listings
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Menlo Park’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 380 listings

SU 201706
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 870 listings

CU
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 340 listings

PA
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 450 listings

LA
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Los Altos’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 360 listings

Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Results calculated from approximately 890 listings
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 890 listings

CB
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Postal City is ‘Campbell’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 460 listings

B
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 790 listings

E
Time frame is from Jun 2016 to May 2017 Area Name is ‘3 – Evergreen’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Results calculated from approximately 810 listings

再次說明,我是房地產經紀,是幫助你合理出價買到房子,協助你把房子賣在高點,絕對不是要炒高房地產市場,我天天看房子,適時地將市場現況記錄下來,如果您有買賣房屋需求、出租房管理,或任何關於矽谷房地產資訊

歡迎利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房

    • 電話 408-505-3003
    • FB/電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
    • 微訊:maggiechien002
    • LINE:chienmingwei
    • FB粉絲專頁:Maggie Chien-Realtor

The API: 10 things parents should know

前兩天一個Cupertino 搬走的媽媽語重心長地告訴我

「我要是重新再選擇一次,我不會讓我孩子去念Monta Vista ,Pidmont High也很好啊,我兒子在MV只是前20%,他沒有高中生活,一直在念書,如果到競爭少一點點的學校,他會不會比較快樂我無法確定,但是他排名一定會很前面,史丹佛只要全校的第一名,在名校的孩子,實在很可憐...」

API分數常常是有孩子的家庭購買房子的參考指標,去年10月開始,Redfin重新調整學區分數,許多API落後的學校,突然變成9分10分,不管如何,API分數真的是百分之百的指標嗎? 你的孩子一定要爭破頭搶好學校嗎?

這裡有篇來自greatschools.org的文章,提供大家參考,讓你對所謂的API 分數有進一步的了解

1. The API is not a test.

Rather, the API is a school performance measurement system that was first developed as part of California’s 1999 Public Schools Accountability Act. Each year, the state calculates the Base API for each school to establish a baseline for the school’s academic performance, and it sets an annual target for growth. Each summer, the state announces the Growth API for each school, which reflects growth in the API from year to year.

The 2011 Base API, released in May 2012, is calculated using each school’s test results from the California Standards Tests (CSTs — state tests designed to see how students are learning state standards), the California Modified Assessment (CMA), the California Alternate Performance Assessment (CAPA) and the California High School Exit Examination (CAHSEE).

The 2012 Growth API, which will be released in September 2012, shows the school’s academic growth for the year. It is calculated in the same way as the 2011 Base API.

2. The API measures both school performance and improvement.

The API can be used to see how well a school did on tests in any given year, as well as to track school progress over time. Each year, parents can review a school’s API number, which shows how well it did relative to the state’s goal of 800, and also check the school’s growth from the previous year. To make it an accurate measure of school improvement, the Base API calculation only includes test results of students who were in the district during the previous school year. The Growth API is calculated using results of students from the current school year.

3. The API has very high stakes.

Due to the spotlight on API results from newspapers and the state, schools are under tremendous pressure to increase test scores and improve their APIs. While some argue that this pressure encourages schools to improve classroom instruction, others are afraid that schools will shortchange rich curricular programs in favor of test preparation drills.

4. The API measures academic performance, not school quality.

As a parent, you may have heard people say things like, “The school has an API of 750, so it must be a great school,” or “The API is only 550? What’s wrong with this school?” While these simple assessments are tempting, be careful about jumping to conclusions based on a school’s API alone. Before making any overall judgments about a school’s quality, be sure to look at its API improvement as well as other key factors, including teacher experience, parent involvement and special programs.

5. The API focuses on achievement for all students.

The API is designed to show how well schools are serving students across all ethnic and socioeconomic groups. For this reason, separate APIs are calculated for each of a school’s statistically significant subgroups, which include any ethnic groups that account for a significant percentage of the school’s population. If “numerically significant,” APIs are also calculated for a school’s socioeconomically disadvantaged students (students who qualify for the subsidized lunch program or who don’t have a parent with a high school degree), English learners, and students with disabilities.

6. Schools that don’t improve their APIs must get help.

If a school doesn’t meet its API growth target and has one of the lower Base APIs in the state, it may receive grants and special assistance to help with improvement efforts. If a school continues to fall short of its target, it may eventually be subject to strong local or state sanctions, including reassigning the principal (subject to a public hearing), reorganization or even school closure.

7. API results are for schools and districts only.

There is no such thing as an individual student API. The API is based on scores from the CSTs, the CMA, the CAPA and the CAHSEE. The API measures how a school’s or district’s academic performance improves from year to year.

8. The API has changed.

It used to include just the results of the norm-referenced tests — in the first years, the Stanford 9 tests and later the CAT/6. These tests compared California students to their peers nationwide. In recent years the emphasis has shifted to include more results from the CSTs, which more accurately reflect what California students are expected to learn in the classroom, and fewer results from the CAT/6. In early 2009, the CAT/6 Survey was eliminated entirely as a testing tool in the state.

In 2001-2002, CSTs in English language arts (for grades 2 through 11) were added to API calculations. Scores from CSTs in math (for grades 2 through 11), social science (for grades 10 and 11), and the CAHSEE were added in 2002-2003 to provide a more accurate picture of what students have learned. In 2003-2004, CST science tests in grades 9 through 11 and the CAPA in language and math in grades 2 through 11 were added. Since 2004-2005 even more indicators have been added. The API now includes the CST in science for grades 5 and 8 through 11 and in history-social science for grades 8 through 11. In 2008, the California Modified Assessment (CMA) was added to the API for grades 3 through 5. Grades 6 through 8 of the CMA were added in 2010.

9. The API is complicated.

If the whole topic of the API confuses you, you’re not alone. Educators and parents alike struggle to understand where the API comes from, how it’s calculated and what exactly it means. Here’s the bottom line: APIs range from 200 to 1000 and the goal for all schools is 800. The API is based on test scores and is calculated in a way that encourages schools to raise the test scores of the lowest-scoring students.

10. GreatSchools Ratings and the California API are different.

GreatSchools also calculates a rating on a scale of 1 to 10 based on California test results. There are several important differences between GreatSchools Ratings and California API Ranks:

  • API Ranks are created by the California Department of Education. GreatSchools Ratings are created by GreatSchools.
  • The API is calculated using results from the CSTs, CMA, CAHSEE, and the CAPA. GreatSchools Ratings are calculated using the CSTs only. For additional information on GreatSchools Ratings, check our frequently asked questions.
  • Some test subjects count more than others in the API.
  • The API includes all 5 levels of proficiency (far below basic, below basic, basic, proficient or advanced), each receiving a different number of points toward the total API. The API is calculated this way to encourage improvement in test scores. GreatSchools Ratings use only the percent of students who scored at the proficient and advanced levels. GreatSchools Ratings show how the percentage of students on grade level at a school compared to schools across the state.

 

 

2016年3月最新市況,依然「搶得兇狠」

上個月,我們面臨了房子一開價就跳漲10%的日子,這個月,大家仍在搶房子的日子中度過。

供給少於實際需求,於是價格還是繼續走揚,今年因為房價已經高漲,加價率不如去年,許多人出價的時候態度變得謹慎,不過,如果出價太過謹慎,就會聽見「心碎的聲音」,這是我客人實際經歷出價時所開的玩笑。

現在想賣屋的屋主都很精,網路上隨便一查都知道行情,如果不是屋況特差、Location不好,不加個10~15%是進不到第二輪的Counter offer門檻的。除了第二輪 Counter offer,如果屋主需要錢,家裡孩子高中畢業要賣房,可能還需要Final Counter Offer 大決戰,若沒有一鼓作氣,可能就會與心中的Dream house擦身而過,這是我最近幫客人搶房子的心得。

廢話不多說,來看看平均加價率變化曲線,還是 Sunnyvale加價率最高,往南而遞減,到Evergreen稍稍緩息。

 

 

SU201603
Sunnyvale Mar 2015 to Feb 2016

 

 

SU price
Sunnyvale Sale Prices 平均House成交價逐年升高

 

Santa Clara 201603
Santa Clara 201603 加價率繼續攀升

 

Berryessa 201603
Berryessa Mar 2015 to Feb 2016

 

Evergreen
Mar 2015 to Feb 2016 Evergreen

 

Campbell
Campbell

矽谷不動產2016年走勢「量縮價穩」

親愛的朋友久等了,我在亞洲的旅程已經結束

2/8號晚上就回到矽谷

這期間搶房還是搶得兇,不少網友與客戶問我,最近房源怎麼這麼少,怎麼會這樣,發生什麼事?

不要恐慌,讓我們一起找答案。其實市場反應出來的,就是最簡單的「供需原則」罷了!

讓我們先來看看數據,觀察了一下,呼應之前過完年房市就回溫的結果,2016年的房市依然如此。

2015年的冬天雖屬淡季,但是房屋供給量少,需求量大,價格卻依然持穩,甚至維持上揚,成交天數雖然出現微幅上揚,但是Sunnyvale, Berryessa, Evergreen以及South SJ, Blossom Valley等等的加價率卻在11月、12月落底之後彈升。

我抓了這些地區,讓我們一起來看看MLS最新數據報告

CU all
Cupertino 201601 加價率持平,成交天數多了一天

 

SU
Sunnyvale 我只抓了Single Family  201601 加價率回彈,成交天數微幅上揚

 

Berryessa
Berryessa價錢也有回彈趨勢,看來又是個上升的跡象

 

Evergreen
就連Evergreen也是出現加價率回彈的情形

 

South SJ
也許矽谷的樣本數不夠,那我們來看看樣本數更多的Blossom Valley, South San Jose, Willow Glen,價格一樣在11月落底之後彈升。

接下來回答客戶與網友的問題!最近房子怎麼那麼少?

我可以大膽的說,原因是「搶得快!」&「中國人過年」兩大因素

房地產購買需求依然未減,雖然矽谷裁員聲四起,股票持續地下滑,但是保值性產品像是黃金已經出現漲幅,保值度更佳且有穩定租金的的矽谷不動產,在我看來2016年依然是大有可為,釋出量少,但是房價至少能在穩定中求發展,呈現量縮價穩格局。

以上報告,為MLS數據與個人10年房地產經驗的意見與觀察。

若有購屋或資產重新分配需求,歡迎透過下列方式與我聯繫,

Mingwei Business card

wechat:maggiechien002

 

祝大家猴年行大運、新年快樂

 

 

 

 

舊金山灣區 南灣 房地產 201510月最新數據報告

Here is the latest market analysis by Maggie Chien.  I just finished house market research about South bay, part of east bay and also Berryessa.  Time frame is from Oct 2014 to Sep 2015.  Postal City is Palo alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Fremont, Milpitas, Berryessa.  Property Type is Residential.  Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Town house’.

為各位奉上十月初最新的市場資訊,先來看看

Los Gatos/Monte Sereno & Saratoga 的市況變化

L & S 201509

交易天數減少、加價率微服增加0.3%,但是基本上Los Gatos/Monte Sereno & Saratoga這兩區域

售價接近開價,成交天數仍在一個月以上!

CupertinoTime frame is from Oct 2014 to Sep 2015 Area Name is '18 - Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 620 listingsCupertino平均成交天數仍維持在19天,加價率從108.3%降至105.4%

Sunnyvale

SV 201509

Sunnyvale 近期市況相較Cupertino更佳,

成交天數 減少一天,市場熱度未減,微加價率微幅跌落從109.1%跌至107.9%,顯示房價仍在高檔盤旋,未見跌價趨勢

主因應是Cupertino房價過高,排擠效應讓不少家庭寧願往外退,畢竟94087, 94086等部分Sunnyvale仍有好學區環境

Berryessa

BE 201509

 數據真有趣!Berryessa的房價曲線與高房價區出現明顯差異

加價率不減反升,從105.2% 上升至106.1%,幫客戶找房子的時候,我也可以明顯感受到Berryessa地區的「熱度」所在!

最近我有客人在看South San Jose的房子,我也跑了一個Single family only的數據供參考

SSJ

South San Jose成交量少,數據參考值較低,

唯數據可明顯看出成交量與購買力在此區是很低的,房市不熱門,學區分數低,就會影響未來轉手力。

Cupertino X Sunnyvale 近五年哪裡漲得多?

你知道Cupertino X Sunnyvale這五年房價哪裡漲得多嗎? 猜猜看!

這份數據是客戶問了我一個問題,本著前財經記者的使命,我在MLS找了數據研究一下。

我只針對Single Family 跑了數據

這是Cupertino近五年Single Family房價走勢圖示↓

Cupertino house

另外抓了2010年到2015年每一個月的平均成交數據

2010當年均價$1,052,496  2015年1月至9月均價為 $1,791,901 上漲幅度70.25%

這是Sunnyvale近五年Single Family房價走勢圖示↓

SU house

SUNNYVALE  Single Family房價

2010年當年平均房價為$745,782,2015年1月至9月平均房價為$1,351,753,漲幅為81.25%

你猜對了嗎?