第三、買房的時候要確認房間數跟廁所數夠多：Work from home的人不少，4房一定比3房好租，3房一定比2房好租，廁所也要夠用，房子內套房多最好，如果說房間數多，還有人願意一間一間分租，租金報酬可能會高一點，或是有人經營Airbnb 或是交由像https://zeusliving.com/短租管理，整體收入也能提高。
Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In
Compass Report, Early February 2023
December is typically the month that sees the year’s lowest level of deal-making activity – i.e. listings accepting offers (going into contract) – which leads to January usually posting the lowest monthly number of closed sales. (Sales typically close 3 to 6 weeks after going into contract.) In the 11-county, greater Bay Area, accepted-offer activity in December 2022 and closed sales volume in January 2023 generally hit their lowest monthly points in 15 years.
Typically, after the long holiday slowdown, the market just begins to wake up in mid-January before accelerating into spring. That being said, inflation has dropped substantially since June and interest rates since November, home prices are well down from last spring, stock markets are up 8% (S&P) to 15% (Nasdaq) YTD as of 2/3/23 (albeit with continuing volatility), and despite escalating layoffs in high tech, early indications in 2023 point to rebounding buyer demand. Open house traffic has jumped, more buyers are requesting listing disclosure packages, and there have been increasing reports of multiple offers and (often unexpected) overbidding of asking price. Based on this preliminary data (much of it still anecdotal*), it appears that buyer demand severely repressedby economic conditions in the 2nd half of 2022 has begun to bounce back.
A similar rebound began in mid-late summer 2022 for similar reasons – a significant drop in mortgage rates and a large rise in stock markets – which then quickly faded when positive economic developments went into reverse. Market activity then slowed further through the rest of 2022. There are currently considerable hopes for a more lasting economic recovery in 2023.
During the long high-tech and pandemic housing boom – which peaked in April/May 2022 – as each year began, the classic dynamic was for buyers to jump back into the market much more quickly than sellers, creating an immediate imbalance between supply and demand. Too few new listings compared to the quantity of motivated buyers sparked often ferocious bidding wars, leading to considerable home price gains virtually every spring. It is too early to conclude, after the general price declines and steep drops in market activity seen in the 2nd half of 2022, that a sustained recovery in market conditions is now underway, and if it is, how quickly it will develop and its impact on prices in 2023. Many economic conditions remain challenging – with critical indicators still much weaker on a year-over-year basis – and forecasts by economists and analysts vary widely. Hopefully, economic conditions will continue to improve, providing the foundation for the recovery in real estate. In the meantime, preliminary indicators are surprisingly positive, and the CEO of Compass recently stated his belief that Q4 2022 saw the bottom of the market.
The “spring market,” which can begin as early as February in the Bay Area, is typically the biggest selling season of the year, especially for luxury homes, and more data regarding new listings coming on market, listings going into contract, sales volumes, speed of sale, overbidding and sales prices will soon become available.* * Most “hard” data in real estate is based on closed, which generally reflects deal-making activity in the previous month,when offers were negotiated. January sales mostly reflect the December 2022 market when new listing activity and buyer demand were at their lowest ebb in years. February and March listing and sales data will begin to better reflect early 2023 conditions.
註1 考英文跟數學的註解，In 2021-2022, California tested students using the California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP), administered through the online Smarter Balanced Summative Assessments. These are comprehensive, end-of-year assessments of grade-level learning that measure progress toward college and career readiness. Each test, English language arts/literacy (ELA) and mathematics is comprised of two parts: (1) a computer adaptive test and (2) a performance task; administered within a 12-week window beginning at 66 percent of the instructional year for grades three through eight, or within in a 7-week window beginning at 80 percent of the instructional year for grade eleven. The summative assessments are aligned with the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) for ELA and mathematics. The tests capitalize on the strengths of computer adaptive testing-efficient and precise measurement across the full range of achievement and timely turnaround of results.
註2 The California Science Test (CAST) is an online assessment based on the California Next Generation Science Standards (CA NGSS) . All local educational agencies (LEAs) with eligible students in grades five and eight and in high school (grade ten, eleven, or twelve) administer the CAST. Every device used for testing must have the secure browser installed. Stable, high-speed Internet is required. The CAST is administered in grades five and eight and once to each student while that student is in high school. All students must take the CAST by the end of grade twelve, but have the option of testing in grade ten or grade eleven.
如果從上一次的修正談起，2017-2018年房價漲至最高點，2018年初開始逐漸加息，2018年5月我在Open House時，明顯感受到相較於2018年4月，Open House來人數減少、Offer數銳減，2018年中瞬間急凍的房市持續修正到2020年的Covid-19爆發之後的數個月，直到Work from Home後大家重新檢視房屋需求，2020年春天起漲，房市一路熱絡至2022第二季。
從MLS數據上來看，Santa Clara County (Single Family Home, Condominium, and Townhouse) 2022年平均房價 (包括Single Family Home, Condominium, and Townhouse) $1,733,670，最高點落在4月的$1,894,122，11月$1,625,849，12月則來到$1,513,540，4月代表3月銷售情形，12月則是11月的銷售數據，房價跌幅有20%，相較於11月跌幅有14%，通常感恩節後的銷售數據極少，較不具參考價值。
來看看2022年的加價率Sale to List Price Ratio跟平均銷售天數Avg Days on the market
Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara County’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 13,000 listings。
Santa Clara County 平均銷售所需天數已經從最少的10天到31天。Sale Price to List Price Ratio 也從115.3%跌到98.8%。
Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022. Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’.
Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 960 listings
Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 Postal City is ‘Los Altos’
Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 320 listings
Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’
Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 470 listings
Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 Postal City is ‘San Jose’
Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 6,900 listings
Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022
Postal City is ‘Milpitas’
Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 530 listings
Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022
Postal City is ‘Mountain View’
Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 550 listings
Chien Ming Wei 是我的legal name. 我是全職加州地產經理 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756
