2018年1月矽谷房市行情報告

今天(2/2)寫稿日股票稍有修正,股市這幾年歷經的漲勢不斷,稍有修正不也是好事一樁?

股票回檔,房市呢,我們處在全美最熱的房市區,還不見任何跌勢,如果股市真的大幅下修,也許價格還會有回穩的可能,若要見到下跌,可能短期內不容易。

2018年1月是offer寫到手軟,整個月是漲得又驚又快,不然就等著從別人的成交價往上加價。今年開始我的粉絲頁 會有我當周我跟同事下offer的最新成交狀況匯報,如果能及時掌握行情,對於周邊下次出價會更有幫助。

在這個賣方市場的時代,屋況差、長黴長菇、地基有問題的房子都還是一堆人投標,更不用說裝修完畢或是屋齡較新的房子了,offer數破表、加價率直飆、沒有超過comps 5%以上是肯定拿不到房子的,也因此買房投標之前買家更要謹慎,算好手上現金多寡,才能不讓保證金被扣走。

最近常跟客戶說,真的很抱歉,最近買房無法幫你省錢,而且保證會買在歷史高點,但是沒有人知道何時是最高點。必須要請你做出選擇,因為買與不買、要不要留在這一個城市,每個人都有不同的人生規劃跟方向。但是當您下定決心要在這裡買房,我是全職經紀人,必能為你全力以赴。

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一月幫客人搶到房子的客人感謝信,買到房子真的很難,買到好deal更難,謝謝客戶的肯定。

 

 

 

 

來看看2018年1月加價率與成交所需天數,1月數據代表著2017年12月的行情跟買氣。看2017年2月到2018年1月的數據,更能完整看出2017年一整年房市走勢,加價率一路攀升、去化日期一路減少,買氣依然維持高檔水位,在矽谷買房,難度繼續升高。

以下圖示折線為加價率,長條圖為房子上市到銷售所需時間。

 

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is '19 - Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 900 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘ Sunnyvale’. Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 900 listings

 

C
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘Cupertino‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

 

M
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 550 listings

 

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is 'Los Altos' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 370 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is ‘Los Altos’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 370 listings

 

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is 'Campbell' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 480 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Postal City is ‘Campbell’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 480 listings

 

Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is '5 - Berryessa' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is – Berryessa‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
AV
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘ Almaden Valley‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 400 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is '3 - Evergreen' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 810 listings
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘ Evergreen’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 810 listings
CB
Time frame is from Feb 2017 to Jan 2018 Area Name is ‘ Cambrian’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 860 listings

 

我是 National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。

如果您有任何買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話 408-505-3003
  • 電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • 微訊:maggiechien002
  • LINE:chienmingwei
  • FB粉絲專頁:Maggie Chien-Realtor

四個在矽谷選擇買新房的理由

九月我寫了這篇文章矽谷房產筆記/在矽谷排隊買新房 

現在我跟許多買家們繼續排著隊,等待買新房 (指的是建商全新開發、沒人住過的房子)

這篇我要寫一下為什麼最近我很推薦客人買新房,以及市場推案概況,原因有幾項,也許等待是值得的。以下內文,只要點入建案名,都可以直接連結到建案網頁。

第一、價格固定:搶房搶破頭,2017年在矽谷南灣買房,尤其是首購族的60~120萬價格範圍內,競標總價多是要高於周邊近兩個月成交價的5~10%才能標到房,如果Listing agent 很盡責地無限counter,很多人可能會投標數次卻沒有買到。最後結果總是會超出預算,甚至可能被price out 退出市場,與其這樣,不如看好幾個社區,老老實實排隊等release,還有新房可以住。

Centre Pointe 11/4 現場release 盛況

第二、時間寬裕:大部分在南灣的建商會在建好地基之後就銷售,至少都還有大半年時間可以等待資金到位跟調整貸款,先把家人的gift funds轉到美國,放上兩個月以上,只要保持信用良好,不在貸款期間換工作,都會順利成交。

第三、邊等新房邊看房:排隊買新房並且一邊投標下中古屋的offer是沒有牴觸的,既然pre Approval都已經被pull credit了,那就一邊排隊買新房等待機會吧。多數建商也可以接受現有的pre approval letter買房。如果可以接受中古房的屋況,雙管齊下會更早買到房子。

第四、格局、地點選擇多:南灣目前新案從70萬元起到140萬元的產品為最多。建商很聰明,現在都是賣Condo/ Town house style condo,高價位或是稍微偏遠的區域才有Town house/ Single Family。

Indigo in South San Jose


目前還在銷售的房子,南至South San JoseIndigo 4房80萬元Milpitas Capitol (Great mall parkway) & Montague Expressway 其實就是在BART附近就有好幾個建案,Somont/ Centre Pointe /Elison Park 產品規劃很多元,社區也各有不同特色。Milpitas還有一個Coming soon的 Prynt,我可以幫你約到搶先跟Sales manager見面喔!

Berryessa KB HOME的APEX 兩房Condo 85萬元起,Santa Clara City的 Madison Place已經快交屋,明年預計二月將在Santa Clara downtown推出Gateway,我很看好這塊區域的潛力,逢人必推薦。Pulte的 Saverio正在Pre selling…

Sunnyvale大案子就是百餘戶規劃的的The Vale  依照大小與建材等級分為兩大部分ECHO & NEXUS,最新價格從135萬元起,雖然是整治過的工業用地,銷售速度也算順暢。

這裡有土地取得的過程: http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/03/09/sunnyvale-plot-of-land-sells-for-186-million-450-townhomes-could-come-to-site/ 

賣了一陣子的Sandalwood 這周末(11/11)會有新的release,2房從120萬元起一直到4房150萬元左右,剩餘戶數不多,陸續到明年一月、二月會釋出model home。

如果你不喜歡超大型社區,Sunnyvale最新要推出的CLASSICS at Evelyn Place可以給你參考,這裡距離downtown很近,周末有farmers market,Sunnyvale downtown一直在更新,周邊要啥有啥,生活機能很方便,社區總共42戶,從3B2.5B到4B3.5B都有,3房還有有陽台的版本,預計12月開始銷售,屆時又是一場排隊搭帳篷的考驗戰。

至於Mountain View的Radius 還在讓人繼續標售,社區共計206戶,目前還有大約60戶待售,與他人不同是Pulte銷售方式很多元,有些是現場抽籤,有些則是上網競標,Radius採取競標模式銷售,加價率大約10%。 Sales office也沒有, model home也沒有,銷售過程只需電腦競標,這是一個未來的銷售模式?!

 

Mountain view的SierraPoint 12/2日正式開案,規劃相對大面積的3~4房總價1.6M起,學區是Theuerkauf Elementary, Crittenden Middle, Los Altos High School.

Classic的新案Permanente Creek 距離Sierra Point非常近,社區都是三層樓Townhomes,但是屬於Condo的地目,總價從 1.3M~1.8M,學區是Monta Loma Elementary , Crittenden Middle, Los Altos High School。

 

1101 West Model Home精華區的1101 West,走入社區感覺像是進了San Francisco的新建房,建材等級較佳,當然價格也是高水平,面El Camino Real使用三層窗以隔絕噪音,多數戶別看El Camino Real樹梢或有後方校園景觀,銷售已近尾聲,剩下的studio開價75萬元,格局並不方正,不好使用。剩下2房樣品屋,位於2樓,預計2018年1月上市供大家標售。

除了南灣這些社區,我也跟客人到Fremont  Union CityHayward. Fremont 新案可就多啦!Condo產品有Pepper tree、距離鐵道很近的Renato而建商Robson home的Single family 從1.2~2M的豪宅都有。 Newark Bay shore 系列,則是大型造鎮開發,價格很實惠,產品種類多,但是生活機能還是不夠好。

三谷地區我也陪同看房,San Ramon有知名的建商造鎮Wallis Ranch,只是8月旁邊曾經火燒山,Gale Ranch我覺得距離高速稍遠,如果喜歡高爾夫,可能會感到興趣,附近有兩個Golf course跟一個driving range。

Pleasanton的新房多是獨棟大戶社區,最近看了面積在當地相對小一點的Andares 社區介於一堆辦公室中間,所以晚上跟周末非常安靜,社區對面就是中學,價格從85萬元起可買三房Town house,如果已經有塞車的心理準備,又想買全10分學區的首購族,這裡是個好選擇。


新房多、價格範圍也廣,因為地點有異,產品設計也各有優缺像是Indigo雖然物美價廉,但是回家會經過墳墓公園,你會介意嗎?  目前建商說剩下45戶左右,只想賣給真正的home buyer not investor,如果真能實行,是再好不過。

如果你對南灣新房有興趣,要有等待半年到一年的心理準備,東灣大概三個月到半年,三谷地區可能已經有新建房可以立即入住,請注意!看新房第一次踏入銷售中心一定要與我同行,第一次造訪一定要與我一同填寫登記表格。

2018年春天後,還會有很多新房陸續上市,如果你有買房計畫,或有任何關於房地產的疑問請與我聯繫。

Mingwei Business card

電話 408-505-3003
FB/電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
微訊:maggiechien002
LINE:chienmingwei
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請同業尊重,每一篇文章都是我花了很多時間寫的,也都親自去看過建案,請勿任意複製貼上!如您要分享,請註明出處https://maggiechien.com/ 謝謝。

 

 

 


 

 

 

2017 6月、7月矽谷房市行情報告

Maggie Chien-Realtor 矽谷專業房地產經理人】一直以來,六月中到七月底的矽谷,都是房市淡季,可以點此到去年暑假市場分析,但是2017年七月跟2016年的冬天一樣,這個市場「是反常的」。淡季不淡,房價再創新高,就MLS銷售所需日期與加價率看來,矽谷房市漲不歇,預計下個月,還會有另一波高點出現。

今年七月是我入行以來最忙的一個月,因為房市交易熱絡,我沒出城、沒度假,七月我跟同事一同協力銷售兩間房子,幫助客人買到三間房子,這個夏天,實在是忙翻了!說說我的 Listing吧,位於South San Jose的兩房house,因為還在pending,但是收到9份offer,加價率超越10%,至於Santa Clara的三房新裝修房,也還在pending,但是看屋量高達100組人,總共有40組人要了報告,最後收到14份offer,加價率超越25%。

這兩個月下offer,如果依照五月、六月成交價買房,除非cash offer,不然幾乎是是買不到房子的,就連我幫客人在south San Jose投標買的2房Condo,如果裝修過加上有staging的房子,已經超越社區行情5000、10000還不見得買到,也常見到cash offer殺出,房價漲幅不歇,還是跟市場供需失衡有著重大關係。

看看數據吧!由下列表可以顯示,幾乎南灣每一個大小城市的去化速度依然很快,加價率依然穩健!

再次強調,我寫市況,不是為了炒房,而是讓有心買房的人更了解市場,我非房市投機客,也沒有資金在房市當短期投資使用,我做好我的本業,幫助客戶以合理價格順利買賣房屋,讓每一個客戶在交易的過程中安心成家。

以下是2017年六月、七月 MLS矽谷南灣最新交易數據。曲線圖是加價率、折線圖則是成交所需天數,所需日期越短、市場越熱絡。如果你對房市交易、房價有任何的問題,歡迎與我聯繫。

 

 

Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is 'Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 900 listings
Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 900 listings

 

Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is 'Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 330 listings
Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is ‘Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 330 listings

 

SC Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 920 listings
SC Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 920 listings
Mountain View
Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 560 listings
Palo Alto
PA Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 460 listings
Berryessa
Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 810 listings

 

LA Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is 'Los Altos' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 370 listings
LA Time frame is from Aug 2016 to Jul 2017 Postal City is ‘Los Altos’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 370 listings
Postal City is 'Campbell' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 490 listings
Postal City is Campbell’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 490 listings

如果您對上述行情有任何問題,或是有買賣房屋需求,歡迎透過下列方式與我聯繫

  • FB/電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • 微訊:maggiechien002
  • LINE:chienmingwei
  • FB粉絲專頁:Maggie Chien-Realtor

2017 4月矽谷房市行情報告

請您動動手,到我FB按個讚,就能看到我即時分享矽谷地產市況

 

這周幫客戶下了幾個東灣、甚至北灣的offer,通通沒有拿到,歸咎原因「輕敵了!」

我以為房市只有南灣火熱,沒想到東灣、北灣都有十幾份offer的熱況,因為房價不高但是租金報酬不錯,也有許多現金買家在市場上獵房。

近幾個月矽谷房市熱銷,大部分的區域市場呈現搶房、房源從上市到進入合約日期明顯縮短、加價率急速竄升,除了 Los Altos 跟Palo Alto 加價率稍有緩息之外,其餘加價率繼續攀升,市場依然火熱。

請看下列不同城市的數據。統計期間為2016年5月到2017年4月,資料來源是MLS,請看圖參考最新市場成交數據與走勢變化。特別說明這些數據不分產品,包括Single Family, Condo, Town House的平均分析,部分區域跨Zip code,舉例來說Berryessa就有95131,95132,95133。

 

長條圖為上市到進入合約期間平均所需天數、折線圖顯示為平均加價率。

Sunnyvale
Sunnyvale     Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 860 listings
Campbell
Campbell   Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 860 listings
Berryessa
Berryessa Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 790 listings
SC
Santa Clara Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 860 listings
Cupertino
Cupertino Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 600 listings

 

RW
Redwood City Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 670 listings
E
Evergreen Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 810 listings
ST
Saratoga Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 350 listings

 

LA
Los Altos Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Zip Code is ‘94022’, ‘94023’, ‘94024’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 450 listings

 

PA
Palo Alto Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 460 listings

 

Mountain View
Mountain View Time frame is from May 2016 to Apr 2017 Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

以上是市場趨勢大方向,房市經常因為學區、街道、治安、嫌惡設施(硬傷)有所區別,必須個案討論,如果您有任何關於矽谷房地產的問題想與我討論,請您與我聯繫。 謝謝

 

寫在搶房的這個初春

朋友傳訊息告訴我,她的朋友最近在搶房,搶得很失落。

 

我也知道我的客戶已經覺得出的這份offer在跟自己拉鋸,是放手一搏地好,沒想到價錢排在後面,連counter offer都沒有,是有多麼難過。

 

 

我只能說,我懂。Offer前後也下了百幾個了,心情難免還是會一起跟著七上八下,努力push buyer下了best offer,卻經常音訊全無,或是listing agent過了幾小時說:「很抱歉,太多更好的offer了。」

 

市場走向有點出乎意料,如果買不到,請你不要洩氣,接下來會有更多房源上市,而且你總是能有多種選擇。

 

 

如果真的買不到,買房計畫又非常急迫

 

第一,可以檢視一下自己的目標,跟你的經紀人談一談,是不是需要轉向其他相對邊陲的區域。第二、留在原本理想的區域,但是下修一下標準,像是學區降低一點點標準,學區還是以高中最重要,小學、中學不妨寬心以待,或是以小孩子目前最需要的學校為準,保留換房的可能性,或是少一間房、少半間或一間廁所,坪數需求降低都是方法,或是經紀人總是有些招數能使,這就需看這經紀人的功力了。

 

如果真的捨不得降低標準,也一定有人選擇再等一等。我一直強調,不會有只漲不跌的市場,現在正是史上高點,沒有人能說得準未來漲幅,雖然今年矽谷房市看不到跌價的可能,但是真沒人能保證明年會如何。

 

買?不買?!

 

如果你真選擇了暫時等待,一定更精算自己的財務金流,最好能忍一忍,住進更便宜的出租房更好,千萬不要因為不用繳房貸跟房屋稅,就把錢給花光了。

 

 

 

Offer數這樣多,激起了買家鬥志

 

就市況來說,我知道最近有些人為了買房,買到失去理智,甚至激發起鬥志,有人試著跟親友借貸、有人在美國借錢,其他國家還錢、有人拿401K借款,無所不用其極,就是不想因為那幾萬美元,失去買到心目中理想房子的機會。 買房雖是人生大事,但是財務槓桿必須精算,現階段全部清倉,我想不見得是一項最好的選擇。

 

買房也須顧及未來生活品質

 

無論怎麼買,一定要預留至少未來半年的房貸與買房時的closing cost預算精算好,甚至要預留一點能自由分配的存款,才能在避免家庭緊急狀況或是未來真的不幸遇到被裁員、失業等狀況時,造成捉襟見肘的窘境。

 

 

願大家不要因為買不到房,變成無理、無禮的人、甚至影響跟家人的感情、或與經紀人建立起的信任。我想你的Agent已經盡力了。然而,這個市場,是需要大家冷靜一點點…。

ce4a9f30cb42bf341ab2aa815aed136a_real-estate-sold-sign-lindsay-sold-sign-clipart-free_1000-750

2017 1~2月矽谷房市行情報告

今天是驚蟄,灣區不打春雷,而是下了冰雹,跟房地產最近的市場一樣猛烈。

發表一下MLS 1~2月的銷售數據,1~2月的數據代表著去年底與今年1月的買氣,過了一個年,市場的腳步已經站穩,價格繼續挑戰新高,今年的買氣跟去年 (2016年3月我的文章) 買氣相比有增無減,矽谷房市已經熱到頂點,價格繼續前進,銷售量則因為淡季,維持著平均水平。市場上嚴重的問題是房源少、需求高,希望未來的兩個月,會有更多可售房屋釋出,平緩一下漲不停的房價。

其實,在去年總統大選選完一個月,我們就嗅到了市場蠢蠢欲動的氣氛,原本觀望的群眾紛紛跨入買房行列,在下offer的時候,更是能感受到市場的溫度,Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara的offer數都在10份以上,近20份則是時有所聞,MV不加個20萬買不到、Sunnyvale Single Family好學區則是15%以上加價率才有counter offer的機會,如果是策略性開低價吸引買方目光的房源,時不時有超過30份offer甚至1月時,Santa Clara出現了55份offer的紀錄。

不僅中古屋需要激烈競標,連新房都是讓人等地苦哈哈,新房案源其實不少,只是想買的人更多,因此Mountain View就有建商的新房採取標售方式銷售。

若是新房案源,以往多數採用先建後售,或至少是半成屋之後開始選擇細部建材與設備,可以作半客製化的建築,且是固定價格銷售。這個新建社區則是連Model home都沒蓋,就開始接受排隊銷售,而且銷售方式是「投標」,而非採固定價格銷售。

截至3/5日為止,該案銷售經理就告訴我,上次release 12間,一共收到160份offer,平均加價9萬美金。 價格相對低的Town house平均加價10萬美金,Single family 平均加7萬美金,下一次的release預計在3/18日,到時候再看看會多瘋狂。

我們來看看MLS 1~2月的成交數據吧,請仔細參考數據圖片下方的圖說,有針對區域、產品別的說明。

第一張是南灣近10年平均銷售價格,區域有Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Santa Clara, Berryessa, Campbell, Milpitas

Time frame is from Jan 2007 to Dec 2017 Area Name is one of '5 - Berryessa', '15 - Campbell', '18 - Cupertino', '6 - Milpitas', '8 - Santa Clara', '19 - Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from 46,971 listings
Time frame is from Jan 2007 to Dec 2017 Area Name is one of ‘5 – Berryessa’, ’15 – Campbell’, ’18 – Cupertino’, ‘6 – Milpitas’, ‘8 – Santa Clara’, ’19 – Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from 46,971 listings

接下來是各大城市平均加價率與平均銷售成交日,

我有把某些城市的Single Family 數據獨立出來,以供參考。

Sunnyvale

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 580 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 580 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 890 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 890 listings

Cupertino

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 350 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 350 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 250 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 250 listings

Santa Clara

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 870 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 870 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 520 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 520 listings

Mountain View

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Mountain View' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 560 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 560 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Mountain View' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 240 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 240 listings

Berryessa

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '5 - Berryessa' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '5 - Berryessa' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 490 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 490 listings

Campbell

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '15 - Campbell' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 860 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ’15 – Campbell‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 860 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '15 - Campbell' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 570 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ’15 – Campbell‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

以上是包括矽谷周邊的房市數據分析,若有其他數據或產品的分析等進一步需求,或是有買、賣房子的計畫,歡迎透過下列方式跟我聯繫。

  • 電話 408-505-3003 Maggie
  • FB/電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • 微訊:maggiechien002
  • LINE:chienmingwei
  • FB粉絲專頁:Maggie Chien-Realtor
  • Office:19620 Stevens Creek Blvd. #280 Cupertino 請先預約

 

 

3/7/2017 Updated! 補上 Evergreen, Blossom Valley, Almaden Valley House的平均成交天數與加價率

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '3 - Evergreen' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 550 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ‘3 – Evergreen’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 550 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '12 - Blossom Valley' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 670 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ’12 – Blossom Valley’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 670 listings

 

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '13 - Almaden Valley' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 360 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ’13 – Almaden Valley’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 360 listings

2016年的矽谷房市分析報告

2016年就這樣轟轟烈烈地過去了,在預測今年的房價走勢之前,

我們先來回顧一下2016年南灣房市概況,請耐心地看到最後吧!

 

一、綜合買氣指標:2016年底淡季不淡,買氣仍未疲乏

先來看看2016年南灣主要大城市的房子出售數據與成交數量,詳盡描述於圖說。

南灣的Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse'銷售量約6600件
紅色為出售數據、綠色為售出數據,明顯看出淡旺季之差異,雖然2016年底房源已經不多,買氣不弱,成交量拉升。以上數據為Berryessa, Milpitas, Santa Clara, Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale.  房型為Singla Family, Condo, Townhouse等三種居住產品,數據來自2017年1月5日 MLS統計數據。
chartimg-1
如果我們把往南一點的Central San Jose, Willow Glen, Blossom Valley, Almaden Valley,加進來之後,銷售比差距不大。以上listing約12000多件。

以上房型僅為Singla Family, Condo, Townhouse等三種居住產品,數據來自2017年1月5日 MLS統計數據。

二、銷售分析:剛性需求強、首購型產品最搶手

南灣2016年主要銷售產品價格與成交主要族群,都是以80~100萬元的房型(買方)居多,其次為120~140萬元的族群。80萬元是入主矽谷買House的第一關,在通車時間約30~45分鐘內,區域不算太差者,目前均價已經上看百萬元,80萬元大概能買的可能是有點瑕疵的房型。

(一) Listings by Price Range  (在Berryessa, Milpitas, Santa Clara, Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale.  房型為Singla Family,上市的房源價格分布)

chartimg-4
上市的房源 價格分布 

在Berryessa, Milpitas, Santa Clara, Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale.  房型為Singla Family,

 

 

在Berryessa, Milpitas, Santa Clara, Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale.  房型為Singla Family,成交的房源價格分布↓

chartimg-2
成交的房源 價格分布

若以Berryessa, Milpitas, Santa Clara, Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale.  House買家,大家可以看一下為數最多的主要購買價還是80~100萬元以及120~140萬元的買方居多。

三、房價繼續漲,已經連漲五年

Time frame is from Jan 2003 to Dec 2016 Area Name is one of '5 - Berryessa', '15 - Campbell', '18 - Cupertino', '16 - Los Gatos/Monte Sereno', '8 - Santa Clara', '17 - Saratoga', '19 - Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from 53,595 listings
Time frame is from Jan 2003 to Dec 2016 Area Name is one of ‘5 – Berryessa’, ’15 – Campbell’, ’18 – Cupertino’, ’16 – Los Gatos/Monte Sereno’, ‘8 – Santa Clara’, ’17 – Saratoga’, ’19 – Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from 53,595 listings

不只House在漲,Condo、Town house漲幅也很高,請看下圖,2016 Condo平均漲幅更勝House

chartimg-7
↑ Time frame is from Jan 2003 to Dec 2016 Area Name is one of ‘5 – Berryessa’, ’15 – Campbell’, ’18 – Cupertino’, ’16 – Los Gatos/Monte Sereno’, ‘8 – Santa Clara’, ’17 – Saratoga’, ’19 – Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Condominium’ Results calculated from 11,869 listings

 

chartimg-8
Time frame is from Jan 2003 to Dec 2016 Area Name is one of ‘5 – Berryessa’, ’15 – Campbell’, ’18 – Cupertino’, ’16 – Los Gatos/Monte Sereno’, ‘8 – Santa Clara’, ’17 – Saratoga’, ’19 – Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from 12,950 listings

 

四、2017漲不漲?

去年我們已經在擔心,矽谷漲了四年的房價還漲不漲?  就在總統大選前,很多觀望的聲音讓房市交易溫和一些,卻在大選之後因為股市並沒有應聲下跌,反而股市續強,讓市場再度回溫。

市場的法則就是供需,矽谷的房地產市場也很單純,就是太多上市櫃公司員工在這上班,因此跟股市的連動性非常高,股市依然紅熱、矽谷招募外來人才依然熱絡的背景下,就目前來看,矽谷的剛性需求還在,經濟樂觀,今年房價要跌的可能性我個人覺得機會很低

當然,沒有只漲不跌的市場,房價已高的先決條件下,本身就是一個風險,一月分中國大陸開始進行更嚴謹的外匯管制,只是上有政策下有對策,若你是謹慎小心翼翼的人,可以再觀察一下未來川普上台後的市場概況。

老話一句,長期持有、自住,早點買吧,免得老婆一直念

 

買房、賣房 請來電 Maggie Chien  408-505-3003