2022矽谷房市回顧

2022對我來說,是一個極度忙碌的一年,前三季一方面忙著小孩,一方面隨著客戶們到處征戰搶房。一直到秋天之後,利率攀高,才有一點喘息的空間。

2022第4季隨著利率攀升,裁員聲浪不斷,股市起起伏伏,買、賣家的心情也忐忑不安,買家期待房價跌落,卻又猶豫不敢入場,加上利率高漲,原本的購買力道萎縮,不止信心不足,實際上的購買力也受到打擊,賣家如果還沒接受修正的事實,或是不願意惜售,也只能下市等待時機。

2022房市究竟怎麼了? 我感覺跟2018年走勢很相似。我用MLS 最新數據來輔佐說明。

如果從上一次的修正談起,2017-2018年房價漲至最高點,2018年初開始逐漸加息,2018年5月我在Open House時,明顯感受到相較於2018年4月,Open House來人數減少、Offer數銳減,2018年中瞬間急凍的房市持續修正到2020年的Covid-19爆發之後的數個月,直到Work from Home後大家重新檢視房屋需求,2020年春天起漲,房市一路熱絡至2022第二季。

然而2018年到2019年房價也沒有大幅跌落,一年半的房市整理期,房價從2018到2019年總平均修正約5%,如果「刻意」取2018高點到2019最低點,修正率約20%,我看2023跟2019應該是很類似的走勢。不過要是單論區域總是有些例外,學區好、環境好、屋況好的房子總是眾人追捧,跌價還是有限。

從MLS數據上來看,Santa Clara County  (Single Family Home, Condominium, and Townhouse) 2022年平均房價 (包括Single Family Home, Condominium, and Townhouse) $1,733,670,最高點落在4月的$1,894,122,11月$1,625,849,12月則來到$1,513,540,4月代表3月銷售情形,12月則是11月的銷售數據,房價跌幅有20%,相較於11月跌幅有14%,通常感恩節後的銷售數據極少,較不具參考價值。

如果只看Single Family最高點落在4月的$2,307,109,11月$1,924,387,12月則來到$1,752,637,4月代表3月銷售情形,12月則是11月的銷售數據,相較於12月房價跌幅有24%,相較於11月跌幅有16%。

拉長時間來看,請看下表▼,我整理出2017-2022平均房價、較前年之漲幅、旺季平均、旺季較前年之漲幅,以及年度成交間數,讓你對矽谷房市的長期走勢更有概念。

來看看2022年的加價率Sale to List Price Ratio跟平均銷售天數Avg Days on the market 

Avg DOM & Sale to List Price Ratio

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 County is ‘SCC – Santa Clara County’
Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’
Results calculated from approximately 13,000 listings。

Santa Clara County 平均銷售所需天數已經從最少的10天到31天。Sale Price to List Price Ratio 也從115.3%跌到98.8%。

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022
Postal City is 'Sunnyvale'
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse'
Results calculated from approximately 960 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022. Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’.

Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’

Results calculated from approximately 960 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022
Postal City is 'Los Altos'
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse'
Results calculated from approximately 320 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 Postal City is ‘Los Altos’


Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’


Results calculated from approximately 320 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022
Postal City is 'Palo Alto'
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse'
Results calculated from approximately 470 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto’


Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’


Results calculated from approximately 470 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022
Postal City is 'San Jose'
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', and 'Townhouse'
Results calculated from approximately 6,900 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022
Postal City is ‘San Jose’


Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’


Results calculated from approximately 6,900 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022

Postal City is ‘Milpitas’

Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’

Results calculated from approximately 530 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022

Postal City is ‘Mountain View’

Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’

Results calculated from approximately 550 listings

相較美國其他區域甚至其他投資產品,矽谷房市依然穩健,我常跟客戶說,越住越增值的地方其實並不多,除了美元資產屬強勢貨幣,矽谷的科技產業至今依然蓬勃,諸多產業比過去更仰賴軟體與科技,許許多多號稱第二個矽谷的地方,GDP依然遠遠落後矽谷。

從整個房地產業的體質來說,矽谷房市則依然健康,主要是美國經過了2007年的次貸危機,貸款嚴謹操作,至少我帶過的客戶,沒有一個是超貸,如果有貸款額度超過80%者,則是一定要購買貸款保險。

左邊是申貸者的信用分數,右邊則是申貸者的負債收入比Debt to Income Ratio(DTI)

有人也會問我,現在不是在裁員、整個經濟要蕭條了嗎? 如果不幸被裁員後,加州法定60天薪水(有些年資較多者,可能會多幾個月的薪水)以及保險(或Ooption),或是能申請失業救助金等,都能短暫度過難關。 有人則樂觀地說裁員潮會帶來創業潮,這是產業築底整理再起的一個好機會。

看完地方數據,來看看加州整個房市走勢跟地產局的看法。加州地產局預測,在2023 年加州住房市場預測報告中指出,2023 年現有單戶住宅銷量將下降 7.2%。銷量將降至 333,450 套,低於他們今年預計的 359,220 套銷量,預計 比 2021 年售出的 444,520 套房屋少 19.2%。繼今年預計增長 5.7% 至 831,460 美元之後,明年整個加州的平均房價中位數將下降 8.8% 至 758,600 美元。

點這裡看看我之前寫過的房市情報分析

整個加州當然要整理,全美國的房價更應該要整理,COVID-19之後,很多地方房價漲到誇張,畢竟泡沫不能一直吹,房價也不能一直漲,現在所有的整理跟短暫的歇息,對買家而言都是好事。

最後,大家應該想知道,我怎麼看房市?純屬個人意見,僅供參考。

我覺得矽谷修正幅度不會太大,尤其南灣精華地段,今年春天依然是旺季,有剛需求買家還是會在市面上認真找房,想賣房者如果房屋條件好,請把房子修整好,做好staging,耐心等待好價。想撿便宜者則是建議下半年入場,但是我預估下半年房屋釋出量應該更少,能挑的不多,要有買便宜、買破房來修繕的心理準備,適合有時間、較多現金在手的買家。想買房者2023是個能耐心慢慢看的好年。

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題,或是買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (因為詐騙電話太多如未接聽請TEXT)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

Chien Ming Wei 是我的legal name. 我是全職加州地產經理 CA Real Estate Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

https://www.zillow.com/profile/Maggie-Chien/

Author: Ming Wei (Maggie) Chien 簡明葳

我的中文名字是簡明葳,大家都叫我Maggie,現在在美國矽谷/硅谷(Silicon Valley)擔任房產經紀人 Broker DRE#01973756 。 我曾在台灣當過九年的財經記者,蘋果日報房地產中心(地產王&家居王)、自由時報財經中心房產線總資歷長達七年。我在台灣採訪過數千間建案,在矽谷看房歷年破千間以上,這幾年的矽谷房地產經紀人經驗,建立了我完整的買房資歷與經驗。 在矽谷買房子,是一個充滿挑戰的過程。我能提供試算服務、貸款諮詢與轉介、為你挑選適合妳需求的房子、一同看屋,與你一起挑戰競標的過程。我們將逐條念過合約內容,下標之前我會誠實地揭示屋況、屋主詳細情形、報告,而後續的交屋、租屋、修繕、改建等諮詢都在服務範圍之內。 關於賣房,房價評估、市場分析、修繕建議、上市時間建議、Staging評估、風格挑選、行銷方式分析、海報、Post、媒體推廣、行銷媒體選擇、挑選offer輔助,後續交屋,都是我擔任賣房經紀人時的職責。 我是 National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。 I am a California realtor/broker associate in the Silicon Valley, currently working with Keller Williams Realty. I have always had a passion for Real Estate. As an Editor/Journalist in Taiwan, I had written hundreds of news articles covering Real Estate and Interior Design. After moving to the SF Bay Area in 2014, I followed my passion and embarked on a successful career as a Real Estate agent/broker. For my buying clients, I understand home ownership is a big part of the American Dream and I will help you to achieve this goal with logic and data: - Find/compare/verify the house of your need - Review all property inspection reports, seller disclosures, permit history, HOA docs, etc. with you - Explain all contractual documents to help you make the strongest offer with confidence - Share a buyer's only checklist with you prior to making an offer For my selling clients, I understand it can be a very stressful process determining when to sell, how to price and market the house. I will greatly reduce your burden by: - Thorough analysis on market condition, timing and price - Prepare all documents and escrow account - Touch up/renovate the house with my team of contractors - Showcase the house with professional staging - Advertise and conduct open house - Review and select the strongest offer with confidence Check my review and give me a call for a free consultation today.

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