2018年的矽谷房市分析報告

先跟大家說聲新年快樂!

happy-new-year.jpg

希望大家都有一個很棒的聖誕節&新年假期,我也回來上班啦,如果有關於矽谷房地產交易需求,可以開始跟我聯繫!

在此先整理一下2018年房市概況,再聊聊2019年的計畫

(想看之前所有房市分析請點擊這裡)

看數據之前,相信大家都感受到市場不再熱絡,在利率不斷攀升、全球經濟放緩以及中美貿易戰影響股市震盪的背景下,漲不停的房市終見喘息。

面對房市的修正,對於長期持有的買家、投資人都是一個機會,買家有更多選擇,投機客、Flipper縮縮手,也盼望這樣的調整讓市場更健康。

2018年9月矽谷房市行情報告一文,我就提到現在價格好談,後來我在10月~12月成交的房子,除了新裝修的房子還是熱門,其他一般condition的房子,幾乎都是低於listing Price成交,客戶在2018年6月進contract的全新房,我們也去跟建商談了價錢,建商也同意降價了。

2018年的房市走勢,1~5月隨著2017年的漲勢價格持續攀升至頂點,建商、社區行情依然不斷創下新高,後續因為利息調整,6月的open house我們就見到冷清的現象,7~9月還算平穩,美國國慶之後甚至還有一波熱潮,後來隨著股市震盪,10~12月都是修正的格局持續至今。

目前的市況因為房屋選擇變多,買家回歸理性,大致可以分為三種情形。第一、屋況條件好、地點好,依然深受歡迎,價格修正不到5%。第二、地點好、屋況普通的房子,買家評估只要能簡易修繕,價差能接受,多半也都會成交,價格修正約10%。第三、屋況不好、地點不夠好的房子則常常有買家棄標,必須back on the market 或甚至下市不賣了,價格修正率多達20%。

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綜觀去年南灣交易量,本文數據均以2019年1月2日 MLS統計數據為準

2018年南灣:San Jose, Milpitas, Santa Clara(不包括Alviso), Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale 所有 Listing 數量為14119間,銷售了10847間

比較2017年同期(2018年1月2日 MLS統計數據)

2017年南灣:San Jose, Milpitas, Santa Clara(不包括Alviso), Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale 所有 Listing 數量為12657間,銷售了11898間

2018買氣的確不如2017,但是數據僅供參考,因為這其中不包括未上市的銷售、部分建商蓋好的全新房屋銷售。

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此外,從我在MLS很常擷取下來使用的 Average DOM & Sale to list price Ration也能明顯的看出加價率減低、成交天數增加,顯示市場熱度不再瘋狂,買家回歸理性。先來看看我最熟悉的Sunnyvale,平均加價率幾乎是0%

SU

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 920 listings以上這一篇是以Sunnyvale為例,南灣其他城市也都是類似的走向

Santa Clara

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 890 listingsm

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Area Name is ‘6 – Milpitas‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 500 listingsCB

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Postal City is ‘Campbell‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 420 listingsCU

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Area Name is ’18 – Cupertino‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 550 listingsB

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 730 listingsPA

Time frame is from Jan 2018 to Dec 2018 Postal City is ‘Palo Alto‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, and ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 440 listings以上數據能看出市況走向,但是每一個社區、每一個學區的成交價都與位置地點有別而有極大差異,如果要下offer,還是要做好精準的comparable.

矽谷房市的熱絡度跟股市一直是正相關,高點整理對於股市是健康的,觀察市況,想買房、換房的人一直都沒有少,但是股市震盪導致信心不足,預期2019應該會是維持高檔整理、交易量減少的現象。

若您有其他關於矽谷置產問題,或是買賣房屋的需求。

請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析

  • 電話/簡訊  408-505-3003 (如未接聽請留言)
  • 電郵: chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • LINE: chienmingwei

我是專職加州地產經紀人 CA Real Estate Realtor/Broker、National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。DRE#01973756

作者: Maggie Chien 簡明葳

我的中文名字是簡明葳,大家都叫我Maggie,現在在美國矽谷/硅谷(Silicon Valley)擔任房產經紀人 Broker DRE#01973756 。 我曾在台灣當過九年的財經記者,蘋果日報房地產中心(地產王&家居王)、自由時報財經中心房產線總資歷長達七年。我在台灣採訪過數千間建案,在矽谷看房歷年破千間以上,這幾年的矽谷房地產經紀人經驗,建立了我完整的買房資歷與經驗。 在矽谷買房子,是一個充滿挑戰的過程。我能提供試算服務、貸款諮詢與轉介、為你挑選適合妳需求的房子、一同看屋,與你一起挑戰競標的過程。我們將逐條念過合約內容,下標之前我會誠實地揭示屋況、屋主詳細情形、報告,而後續的交屋、租屋、修繕、改建等諮詢都在服務範圍之內。 關於賣房,房價評估、市場分析、修繕建議、上市時間建議、Staging評估、風格挑選、行銷方式分析、海報、Post、媒體推廣、行銷媒體選擇、挑選offer輔助,後續交屋,都是我擔任賣房經紀人時的職責。 我是 National Board of Realtors、California Association of Realtors、以及 Silicon Valley Association of Realtors的會員。 如果您有任何買賣房屋的需求。 請利用以下方式與我聯繫、預約看房或賣房分析 電話 408-505-3003 (如未接電話請留言) 電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com 微訊:maggiechien002 LINE:chienmingwei FB粉絲專頁:Maggie Chien-Realtor I am a California realtor/broker associate in the Silicon Valley, currently working with Keller Williams Realty. I have always had a passion for Real Estate. As an Editor/Journalist in Taiwan, I had written hundreds of news articles covering Real Estate and Interior Design. After moving to the SF Bay Area in 2014, I followed my passion and embarked on a successful career as a Real Estate agent/broker. For my buying clients, I understand home ownership is a big part of the American Dream and I will help you to achieve this goal with logic and data: - Find/compare/verify the house of your need - Review all property inspection reports, seller disclosures, permit history, HOA docs, etc. with you - Explain all contractual documents to help you make the strongest offer with confidence - Share a buyer's only checklist with you prior to making an offer For my selling clients, I understand it can be a very stressful process determining when to sell, how to price and market the house. I will greatly reduce your burden by: - Thorough analysis on market condition, timing and price - Prepare all documents and escrow account - Touch up/renovate the house with my team of contractors - Showcase the house with professional staging - Advertise and conduct open house - Review and select the strongest offer with confidence Check my review and give me a call for a free consultation today.

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