寫在搶房的這個初春

朋友傳訊息告訴我,她的朋友最近在搶房,搶得很失落。

 

我也知道我的客戶已經覺得出的這份offer在跟自己拉鋸,是放手一搏地好,沒想到價錢排在後面,連counter offer都沒有,是有多麼難過。

 

 

我只能說,我懂。Offer前後也下了百幾個了,心情難免還是會一起跟著七上八下,努力push buyer下了best offer,卻經常音訊全無,或是listing agent過了幾小時說:「很抱歉,太多更好的offer了。」

 

市場走向有點出乎意料,如果買不到,請你不要洩氣,接下來會有更多房源上市,而且你總是能有多種選擇。

 

 

如果真的買不到,買房計畫又非常急迫

 

第一,可以檢視一下自己的目標,跟你的經紀人談一談,是不是需要轉向其他相對邊陲的區域。第二、留在原本理想的區域,但是下修一下標準,像是學區降低一點點標準,學區還是以高中最重要,小學、中學不妨寬心以待,或是以小孩子目前最需要的學校為準,保留換房的可能性,或是少一間房、少半間或一間廁所,坪數需求降低都是方法,或是經紀人總是有些招數能使,這就需看這經紀人的功力了。

 

如果真的捨不得降低標準,也一定有人選擇再等一等。我一直強調,不會有只漲不跌的市場,現在正是史上高點,沒有人能說得準未來漲幅,雖然今年矽谷房市看不到跌價的可能,但是真沒人能保證明年會如何。

 

買?不買?!

 

如果你真選擇了暫時等待,一定更精算自己的財務金流,最好能忍一忍,住進更便宜的出租房更好,千萬不要因為不用繳房貸跟房屋稅,就把錢給花光了。

 

 

 

Offer數這樣多,激起了買家鬥志

 

就市況來說,我知道最近有些人為了買房,買到失去理智,甚至激發起鬥志,有人試著跟親友借貸、有人在美國借錢,其他國家還錢、有人拿401K借款,無所不用其極,就是不想因為那幾萬美元,失去買到心目中理想房子的機會。 買房雖是人生大事,但是財務槓桿必須精算,現階段全部清倉,我想不見得是一項最好的選擇。

 

買房也須顧及未來生活品質

 

無論怎麼買,一定要預留至少未來半年的房貸與買房時的closing cost預算精算好,甚至要預留一點能自由分配的存款,才能在避免家庭緊急狀況或是未來真的不幸遇到被裁員、失業等狀況時,造成捉襟見肘的窘境。

 

 

願大家不要因為買不到房,變成無理、無禮的人、甚至影響跟家人的感情、或與經紀人建立起的信任。我想你的Agent已經盡力了。然而,這個市場,是需要大家冷靜一點點…。

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2017 1~2月矽谷房市行情報告

今天是驚蟄,灣區不打春雷,而是下了冰雹,跟房地產最近的市場一樣猛烈。

發表一下MLS 1~2月的銷售數據,1~2月的數據代表著去年底與今年1月的買氣,過了一個年,市場的腳步已經站穩,價格繼續挑戰新高,今年的買氣跟去年 (2016年3月我的文章) 買氣相比有增無減,矽谷房市已經熱到頂點,價格繼續前進,銷售量則因為淡季,維持著平均水平。市場上嚴重的問題是房源少、需求高,希望未來的兩個月,會有更多可售房屋釋出,平緩一下漲不停的房價。

其實,在去年總統大選選完一個月,我們就嗅到了市場蠢蠢欲動的氣氛,原本觀望的群眾紛紛跨入買房行列,在下offer的時候,更是能感受到市場的溫度,Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara的offer數都在10份以上,近20份則是時有所聞,MV不加個20萬買不到、Sunnyvale Single Family好學區則是15%以上加價率才有counter offer的機會,如果是策略性開低價吸引買方目光的房源,時不時有超過30份offer甚至1月時,Santa Clara出現了55份offer的紀錄。

不僅中古屋需要激烈競標,連新房都是讓人等地苦哈哈,新房案源其實不少,只是想買的人更多,因此Mountain View就有建商的新房採取標售方式銷售。

若是新房案源,以往多數採用先建後售,或至少是半成屋之後開始選擇細部建材與設備,可以作半客製化的建築,且是固定價格銷售。這個新建社區則是連Model home都沒蓋,就開始接受排隊銷售,而且銷售方式是「投標」,而非採固定價格銷售。

截至3/5日為止,該案銷售經理就告訴我,上次release 12間,一共收到160份offer,平均加價9萬美金。 價格相對低的Town house平均加價10萬美金,Single family 平均加7萬美金,下一次的release預計在3/18日,到時候再看看會多瘋狂。

我們來看看MLS 1~2月的成交數據吧,請仔細參考數據圖片下方的圖說,有針對區域、產品別的說明。

第一張是南灣近10年平均銷售價格,區域有Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Santa Clara, Berryessa, Campbell, Milpitas

Time frame is from Jan 2007 to Dec 2017 Area Name is one of '5 - Berryessa', '15 - Campbell', '18 - Cupertino', '6 - Milpitas', '8 - Santa Clara', '19 - Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from 46,971 listings
Time frame is from Jan 2007 to Dec 2017 Area Name is one of ‘5 – Berryessa’, ’15 – Campbell’, ’18 – Cupertino’, ‘6 – Milpitas’, ‘8 – Santa Clara’, ’19 – Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from 46,971 listings

接下來是各大城市平均加價率與平均銷售成交日,

我有把某些城市的Single Family 數據獨立出來,以供參考。

Sunnyvale

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 580 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 580 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Sunnyvale' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 890 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Sunnyvale’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 890 listings

Cupertino

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 350 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 350 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Cupertino' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 250 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Cupertino’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 250 listings

Santa Clara

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 870 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 870 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Santa Clara' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 520 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Santa Clara’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 520 listings

Mountain View

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Mountain View' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 560 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 560 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is 'Mountain View' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 240 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Postal City is ‘Mountain View’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 240 listings

Berryessa

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '5 - Berryessa' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 820 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '5 - Berryessa' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 490 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ‘5 – Berryessa‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 490 listings

Campbell

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '15 - Campbell' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is one of 'Single Family Home', 'Condominium', 'Townhouse' Results calculated from approximately 860 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ’15 – Campbell‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is one of ‘Single Family Home’, ‘Condominium’, ‘Townhouse’ Results calculated from approximately 860 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '15 - Campbell' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 570 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ’15 – Campbell‘ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

以上是包括矽谷周邊的房市數據分析,若有其他數據或產品的分析等進一步需求,或是有買、賣房子的計畫,歡迎透過下列方式跟我聯繫。

  • 電話 408-505-3003 Maggie
  • FB/電郵:chienmingwei@gmail.com
  • 微訊:maggiechien002
  • LINE:chienmingwei
  • FB粉絲專頁:Maggie Chien-Realtor
  • Office:19620 Stevens Creek Blvd. #280 Cupertino 請先預約

 

 

3/7/2017 Updated! 補上 Evergreen, Blossom Valley, Almaden Valley House的平均成交天數與加價率

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '3 - Evergreen' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 550 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ‘3 – Evergreen’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 550 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '12 - Blossom Valley' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 670 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ’12 – Blossom Valley’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 670 listings

 

Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is '13 - Almaden Valley' Property Type is 'Residential' Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Home' Results calculated from approximately 360 listings
Time frame is from Mar 2016 to Feb 2017 Area Name is ’13 – Almaden Valley’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Home’ Results calculated from approximately 360 listings